As of a few hours before game time, the German team is favored at the Inkling public market on the FIFA Women’s World Cup. After Thursday’s surprising victory over the previous favorite, USA, the Brazilians temporarily led the market.
(As an aside, on Tuesday, about the time that news came out that the Coach was playing Brianna Scurry in goal against the Brazilians, the USA team dropped from about 75 percent to just under 50 percent. The USA contract subsequently rebounded a bit, but did not return above 60 percent.)
It looks like just over 50 traders participated over the course of the market, with about half that number holding positions going into the final match.
Betfair is running a host of betting exchanges around the games, and Germany also appears to be the favorite on that site. (If someone can find Betfair data on the USA vs. Brazil match that spans the goalkeeping change announcement, it may reveal a pretty clear market verdict on the move. I wouldn’t be surprised if the verdict is also revealed in the coaching market, perhaps shortly after the tournament is over.)
Previously: Creating a Prediction Market on Inkling for the Women’s World Cup was Easy!
UPDATE: Germany victorious over Brazil, 2-0.
