Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

InTrade expired the Larry Craig prediction market too early.

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New York Times:

“Today was a major step in the legal effort to clear my name,” Mr. Craig said in a statement after Judge Porter indicated he might not rule until late next week. “The court has not issued a ruling on my motion to withdraw my guilty plea. For now, I will continue my work in the United States Senate for Idaho.

In other words, he is not resigning on September 30, 2007 (as InTrade-TradeSports and most of the media understood it). He stays in the US Senate, for now. We will see how things work out in the end.

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