Prediction market consultant Robin Hanson wants to be paid according to outputs instead of inputs. Smart blog post. However, I will say this, if I may. I think it should be up to the consultant to tell the client where exactly the prediction markets can make a macro difference, compared to the forecasting tools in existence. In Robin Hanson’s model, it’s the client who picks up where he/she wants “more accurate estimates”, and from there the prediction markets would deliver their magic. Hummm… I want specific situations where the holders of insider knowledge are more truthful trading their insights than responding to surveys or participating in meetings.
That’s your job to list these specific situations, mister Hanson.
Psstt… I’m in London, U.K. They made me drink hot chocolate with floating marshmallows!!!… In France, it’s considered a crime. Anyway. I love London and the Londoners. Sky’s blue today. 
Re: I want specific situations where the holders of insider knowlege are more truthful trading their insights than responding to surveys or participating in meetings.
Cowen explains that meetings are perhaps better seen as a form of social theater than, for example, places for holders of private knowledge to truthfully trade insights. (See also Cowen’s article in Forbes and the discussion at Overcoming Bias.)
Anonymous trading in a prediction market = very little social theater, though for internal corporate prediction markets some social theater apparently re-emerges as “water cooler talk”. PM consultants sometimes seek to facilitate the social theater by presenting “top ten traders” lists or “NY office vs. LA office” competitions or other ways to engage traders.
hummm… Mike, you are not on the same line. I acknowledge your comment, but I meant another thing. I meant, what kinds of questions are likely to attract insider info that otherwise would NOT (or badly) be aggregated by polls, surveys and metings?
Delivery date prediction markets would be one answer. I want the full list.
Thanks.