Comments on: BetFair accurately predicted the direction of the interest rate change, but was too shy in its prediction of the amplitude of the interest rate change. http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/09/18/betfair-accurately-predicted-the-direction-of-the-interest-rate-change-but-was-too-shy-in-its-prediction-of-the-amplitude-of-the-interest-rate-change/ Prediction Markets, etc. Thu, 02 Feb 2012 23:13:18 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Niall O'Connor http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/09/18/betfair-accurately-predicted-the-direction-of-the-interest-rate-change-but-was-too-shy-in-its-prediction-of-the-amplitude-of-the-interest-rate-change/#comment-16220 Niall O'Connor Wed, 19 Sep 2007 13:38:31 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/09/18/betfair-accurately-predicted-the-direction-of-the-interest-rate-change-but-was-too-shy-in-its-prediction-of-the-amplitude-of-the-interest-rate-change/#comment-16220 Chris Just be honest - they got it wrong; as did most of the so called experts; "The half-point reduction in the federal funds target was forecast by 23 of 134 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. One hundred and five predicted a reduction of 25 basis points, while six forecast no change. A basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point." There is no real merit to be had from saying that they got the direction right. Moreover, in future it might be more worthwhile to also highlight what the so called experts do say, and, what the odds are on the spread and fixed odds markets regarding rate cuts. Only then will it be plausible to speak of the predictive intelligence of the so called prediction markets. It is also a pity that so many of the gambling industry funded academics who read this blog, do not focus on such matters and actually get around to producing some free, worthwhile research. Chris

Just be honest – they got it wrong; as did most of the so called experts;

“The half-point reduction in the federal funds target was forecast by 23 of 134 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. One hundred and five predicted a reduction of 25 basis points, while six forecast no change. A basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point.”

There is no real merit to be had from saying that they got the direction right. Moreover, in future it might be more worthwhile to also highlight what the so called experts do say, and, what the odds are on the spread and fixed odds markets regarding rate cuts.

Only then will it be plausible to speak of the predictive intelligence of the so called prediction markets.

It is also a pity that so many of the gambling industry funded academics who read this blog, do not focus on such matters and actually get around to producing some free, worthwhile research.

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