The un-Wisdom of Your Crowd??
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Robin Hanson wrote two years ago that he embarked on a philosophy route because that was what his survey told him to do. Among the projects that he discarded:
4. Idea Futures book – present the grand vision of idea futures solving many problems. Someone else is ahead of me with a similar book, and not sure a popular book shouldn’t wait until there is more real progress to report. [1] I wouldn’t learn much doing this. [2] But this is what I am now most famous for.
[1] Well, history is making itself right now. And Robin Hanson is not an essential part of what is happening when it comes to the adoption of internal prediction markets (which might later develop as a serious decision-aid tool) by Fortune-500 firms —David Perry is.
[2] Robin Hanson would have learned a lot about the enterprise processes, human psychology in firms, the pertinent uses of IAMs by organizations, and the factors favoring the development of socially valuable prediction markets.
So, what do you think? Was Robin Hanson right to discard the prediction market route?? Comments are open.
