[...] You can answer a survey question in one minute, but a prediction market probably requires more intensive effort over a period of time. Thus it might be easier to gather the opinions of more people with surveys, compared to what could be achieved with prediction markets. I’m not sure whether surveys or prediction markets would win in a cost-benefit analysis of the tradeoff between cost of running the process and accuracy of the results. [...]
Think of instances where:
- people lie to surveys;
- you don’t know who to survey;
- the few who know won’t answer surveys but would trade on a prediction market;
- etc.
