US Attorney General Alberto Gonzales resigns. More. (Good riddance, by the way.)
Doug Mills / The New York Times
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Once again, Chris Masse was right on the money:
[...] Just like the Olympic City prediction markets, the resignation prediction markets are rarely predictive because there aren’t any reliable advanced indicators to guide the traders. The Olympic committee is secretive and does not grant on merit but on politics (or corruption). As for the embroiled officials (politicians or CEOs), they are secretive too and send false signals (â€Read my lips; I will never resignâ€). In both cases, the event derivative traders don’t have any access to inside information, the only one that counts. So these two types of prediction markets are of inferior quality, which explains why experienced traders don’t speculate on them. [...]
And I provoked a polémique, once again. 
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InTrade-TradeSports:
Alberto Gonzales to announce his resignation on/before 30th September 2007
Alberto Gonzales to announce his resignation on/before 31st December 2007
Alberto Gonzales to announce his resignation on/before 31th Mar 2008
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NewsFutures:
Alberto Gonzales won’t remain Attorney General through the rest of Bush’s presidency.
[This one, with a November 2008 deadline, was indeed predictive.]
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Reminder:
Karl Rove will resign from the White House.
The related Inkling market ( http://home.inklingmarkets.com/market/show/4159 ) showed that the “August and after” contract was the favorite beginning about June 1, with a price of 45 at the time and rapidly increasing to over 90 by the end of June.
Chris, does this mean:
A) The Inkling market was predictive according to CFM;
B) “August and after” predicts both resigning after July 31 and not resigning, so no real prediction is implied after July 31;
C) “August and after” predicts both resigning after July 31 and not resigning, so the interpretation of the contract is “not before Aug 1″, which was true;
D) Resignation markets are still no good, according to CFM;
E) Those wacky DIY markets — who cares?
I predict you will like (D), but why? Why do you NOT like fate-of-a-politician’s-job markets, but you do like fate-of-fictional-character markets?
This PM had a too short existence and was illiquid.
Jed, the markets being closed, I can’t access them and spot the volumes, it seems.
http://home.inklingmarkets.com/market/show/4159
And what I saw and see again are two flat lines.
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RESIGNATION OF US ATTORNEY GENERAL ALBERTO GONZALES
http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/08/28/resignation-of-us-attorney-general-alberto-gonzales-inkling-markets-got-it-right/
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