How do you calculate the odds of catastrophe?

In Nature’s Casino – (10 pages in all) – by New York Times’ Michael Lewis

I have read only portions of it. It’s a long (10 pages!!!!) narrative about the people behind a new market that “has sprung up to spread the risk.”

Psstt… If the name of “Michael Lewis” rings a bell in your head, that’s because that’s the guy who wrote that long article on ProTrade for Portfolio, last spring.

UPDATE: Jed Christiansen comments…

I believe that’s the same Michael Lewis that wrote Moneyball (baseball and better statistics), and Liar’s Poker (finance in the 80′s).

Moneyball was a great book, and from what I understand has really started changing baseball in the past few years.