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Rick Borghesi August 20th, 2007

Justin Wolfers has captured the attention of many with his now infamous paper (PDF) in which he proposes that college athletes shave points far more frequently than previously believed. He deserves a great deal of credit for the originality of his methods, his well-thought-out and diplomatic responses to criticism, and provoking an incredibly interesting debate.

There is still plenty of room for disagreement on this subject. I take the position (PDF) that, while point shaving in amateur sports may be somewhat more common than previously believed, the suspicious statistical trend that he identifies (heavy favorites win yet fail to cover the spread more often than expected) is unlikely to arise primarily from widespread corruption.

I base my opinion on the observation that the same statistical pattern also appears in NBA and NFL game outcomes, yet athletes in major professional leagues are unlikely to engage in point shaving.

NFL and NBA players who are sufficiently talented to reliably influence game outcomes are already wealthy and would have little to gain from such conspiracy. The enormous amount of money that millionaire athletes would have to wager to make manipulation worthwhile would raise suspicion among casinos and, consequently, law enforcement. Were corruption of this sort to be exposed, the conspiring players would not only forego their substantial future salaries, but would also serve time in federal prison.

So, it seems inarguable that point shaving by professional athletes must be far less prevalent than is point shaving by amateurs. Then why in major professional sports do heavy favorites also win yet fail to cover the spread more often than expected?

Admittedly, it is far easier for me to poke a hole in an intriguing theory than it is to come up with an alternative one that fully explains this odd statistical pattern. Nevertheless, I need a good answer to my question before I will become a believer in widespread point shaving.

Rick Borghesi

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