Robin Hanson’s concept of decision markets applied to Midas Oracle management

Daniel Reeves on the scenario of a Midas Oracle convention:

[...] The survey should be about how to measure the success of Midas Oracle (”vote on values”). Ie, as social scientists say, we operationalize “success”. Then have two conditional prediction markets (”bet on beliefs”), one predicting the success given that there’s a conference, the other predicting the success given that there isn’t a conference. Any market whose condition is not met is voided (all money returned). And how does the actual decision happen (whether to host a conference)? We precommit to do what the markets assign a higher expectation of success to.

Your Survey Results

2007-08-12 – Midas Oracle Convention Survey
Should Midas Oracle tries to organize a series of conferences on prediction markets? 15 Responses
YES. A conference series would be the logical prolongation of a popular Internet presence, and they would be very useful for the field of prediction markets. 9 / 15
NO. Midas Oracle should focus only on improving the content quality of its websites. 6 / 15

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Knowing that the Daily Kos (a leftist group blog) co-organizes political conferences (they call them “conventions”), should Midas Oracle co-organize conferences on prediction markets?