Comments on: Karl Rove resigns abruptly. http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/08/13/karl-rove-resigns-abruptly/ Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off Sat, 20 Mar 2010 08:05:32 -0400 hourly 1 By: Emile Servan-Schreiber http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/08/13/karl-rove-resigns-abruptly/#comment-16061 Emile Servan-Schreiber Mon, 13 Aug 2007 13:12:59 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/08/13/karl-rove-resigns-abruptly/#comment-16061 Chris, how exactly do you define "predictive" ? If your criterion is "last trading price above 50%", that would betray a very limited understanding of the nature of both probability and binary markets. That's a debate you and I have had ever since the first days of chrisfmasse.com a propos the 2004 US presidential election. To your credit, I don't think anyone has yet proposed a good way of assessing the "predictiveness" (predictivity?) of a *single* binary market after the fact. It is a very difficult question. Does anyone here have an answer? Chris, how exactly do you define “predictive” ? If your criterion is “last trading price above 50%”, that would betray a very limited understanding of the nature of both probability and binary markets. That’s a debate you and I have had ever since the first days of chrisfmasse.com a propos the 2004 US presidential election.

To your credit, I don’t think anyone has yet proposed a good way of assessing the “predictiveness” (predictivity?) of a *single* binary market after the fact. It is a very difficult question. Does anyone here have an answer?

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