Q: Briefly, what is Intrade?
A: InTrade is a marketplace, just like eBay or the NYSE, that provides innovative markets to trade, and the best darn predictive information on uncertain future events bar none!
InTrade is a prediction exchange (betting exchange) that organizes the trading of event derivatives. It specializes in non-sports prediction markets. (For sports prediction markets, see its sister site, TradeSports.)
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A: [...] We listed a market on whether the U.S. Government would formally report that North Korea tested a missile in a certain manner. While the media reported that North Koreans did test a missile, it was not confirmed in an official U.S. Government release as was required in the market rules, so we settled the market according to the strict interpretation of the rules and not the understood intention of the market. This was understandably a real issue for some of our members and also for Intrade. It was a bad situation for everyone, really. We have learned from it.
The North Korea Missile prediction market has been the biggest scandal in this young industry.
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Event derivative trader “Vancheeswaran”:
BULLSHIT.
Bryan Whitman (Bryan.Whitman@osd.mil) explicitly stated in print, in press conferences, and by email that North Korea fired multiple missiles into the Sea of Japan.
For instance, “North Korea fired a long-range Taepodong-2 missile and six short- and medium-range Scud and Nodong missiles. All landed in the Sea of Japan without incident.”
National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley, in a press conference at the White House, stated that the missiles “went out about 275 miles” into the Sea of Japan.
http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2006/07/20060704-1.htmlThere are many other examples of the U.S. military and government (not just the press) confirming that the missiles were launched and approximately where they landed.
John Delaney is completely misrepresenting what happened, just as he did at the time of the launches.
Medemi on