Does a rich trader, highly partisan and highly convinced that Hillary will make it, care about the price? If he/she has persuaded himself/herself that the expiry will bring $100, then buying the Hillary Clinton event derivative at $40 will yield quite a good potential profit, in his/her view. … Buying at $25… $40… or $30… Does not make a huge difference.
To tell you frankly, I believe that Hillary Clinton is the next US president. I would not vote for her (I’m a mid-core libertarian), but I believe she will make it. I would buy her event derivative any price. $25… $40… or $30… Whatever. Call me a manipulator. 
I’m with you, Koleman Strumpf.
Actually, $30 is quite a bargain, I do believe. Barak Obama is not in the cards anymore, and the US electorate wants the Republicans out (so as to terminate the Iraq war). I expect the Hillary Clinton event derivative to surge in the coming months.
Hence, the real question that Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz should answer is: WHO WAS THAT DAMN MANIPULATOR WHO SHORT-SOLD THE CLINTON EVENT DERIVATIVE LIKE CRAZY FROM MID-MAY TO THE EARLY DAYS OF JULY 2007 AND THUS ARTIFICIALLY MADE BARAK OBAMA LOOKS MORE PRESIDENTIAL THAT HE WAS REALLY?
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UPDATE: Markos Moulitsas Zuniga, founder of Daily Kos, on Hillary Clinton…
We may decide she’s not our first choice, but she’s not a bad choice.
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Static chart:
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Previous: Who could have masterminded the alleged manipulation of the Hillary Clinton prediction market??? + Manipulation can affect prices. – by Eric Zitzewitz + Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market? – by Koleman Strumpf + Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market? Redux. – by Justin Wolfers + Hillary Rodham Clinton – Event Derivatives & Prediction Markets – InTrade-TradeSports + BetFair + NewsFutures = the market-generated probabilities across the different real-money and play-money prediction exchanges + Win Justin’s Money? (re: Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market? Redux.) – by Koleman Strumpf
