For those more interested in the actual research, our original research paper, recently published in the NBER International Seminar of Economics volume, is available here.
I also wrote a more digestible (that is, four page) version for the San Francisco Fed, available here. The NBER have also posted a useful summary of the paper, in the NBER Digest here .
The nice thing about this particular setting is that it really involves a very well-defined comparison between two alternative information aggregators: markets, and averages of expert opinion. And not surprisingly perhaps, the market comes out ahead. Equally, there is some good news for those economists who have used surveys as indicators of economic expectations: they seem to do a pretty good job, too.
Another real-money prediction exchange (betting exchange) should fill the void created by the demise of Economic Derivatives.
