Robin believes that betting markets should be used to rule many human affairs, including government policy. We should bet [*] on which policies will maximize national income, and governments should institute the policies what the betting markets show as most likely to succeed. [...]
[*] Speculate… not just “bet”.
—
As I wrote many times on Midas Oracle, whether Robin Hanson’s concept of decision markets (where conditional prediction markets are used to make decisions) will end up as applications is only half of the story. (Tyler Cowen is skeptical, just as I am.) The other half of the story is that Robin Hanson’s work is also about decision-aid markets (where conditional prediction markets are used to simulate the near future). In my view, it’s only a matter of years before Fortune-500 firms and think tanks pay close attention to this sub concept. They are just discovering the classic prediction markets, these days. Give them some time.
Robin Hanson is an inventor, here. As I wrote many times on Midas Oracle, many times, an innovator comes up, captures the essence of the invention, and applies it in a way that was not envisioned by the inventor. Example: Could be that the best application of the decision markets would be, not in the world of reality (as Robin Hanson hopes), but in the world of imagination. Let’s say that the Libertarians (capital L) creates a libertarian government within a virtual game like Second Life. They could adopt the concept of decision markets to run their public, virtual government. Other ideas are possible; this is just one example, to make the point that the innovators should think outside of the box… framed by the inventors like Robin Hanson.
—
Addendum: Robin Hanson’s response to Tyler Cowen. + Tyler Cowen’s response to Robin Hanson + Tyler Cowen on Robin Hanson + Robin Hanson’s answer to Tyler Cowen
