InTrade seems to take its role as market leader for US political prediction markets very seriously. Since its official splitting with TradeSports, InTrade has opened many interesting prediction markets on legal, political and geo-political issues.
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National Leader Departure Markets: Iran, Iraq, Pakistan, Zimbabwe & Ireland
Friday, Jul 20, 2007
The Exchange has listed a number of contracts on the departure of various national leaders from their current positions. These can be found under Current Events — National Leaders.
We have contracts listed on:
* Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (Iran)
* Pervez Musharraf (Pakistan)
* Robert Mugabe (Zimbabwe)
* Bertie Ahern (Republic of Ireland)
* Nouri al-Maliki (Iraq)
A contract will settle (expire) at 100 ($10.00) if the named individual departs from their current position, as noted in contract description, before 11:59:59pm ET on the date specified in the contract.
The contract will settle (expire) at 0 ($0.00) if the named individual remains their current position at this time.
A departure includes (but is not limited to):
* Resignation
* Retirement
* Removal by electoral process (i.e. voted out of power in an election)
* Removal by coup d’etat
* Removal by constitutional process (e.g. impeachment)
These contracts do not cover the death of the person named in the contract. In the event of the named person’s death before the expiry date of the contract the contract will be unwound, all trades reversed and all trading fees refunded
A resignation or retirement does not have to result in the actual departure by the contract expiry date but rather the announcement of the resignation or retirement must be made and not rejected by that time/date.
A tendered resignation that is not accepted will cause the contract to expire at 0
A departure may be ‘forced’ or ‘voluntary’.
Expiry will be based on official, public announcements as reported and verified in three independent and reliable media sources.
Due to the nature of this contract please also see Contract Rule 1.9 Unforeseen Circumstances.
The Exchange reserves the right to invoke Contract Rule 1.8 (Time Protection) if deemed appropriate.
Any changes to the result after the contract has expired will not be taken into account – Exchange Rule 1.4
Please contact the exchange by emailing help@intrade.com if you have any questions regarding this contract before you place a trade.
Iraqi Government Benchmark – Oil Distribution
Friday, Jul 20, 2007
The Exchange has opened a contract on the Iraqi government passing the legislation required to meet their Oil distribution benchmark. This contract can be found under Current Events — Iraq — Benchmarks for Iraqi Government.
This contract will settle (expire) at 100 ($10.00) if the Iraqi government passes the legislation required to meet the following benchmark (distribution of oil resources and revenues) before 11:59:59pm ET on the date specified in the contract:
Benchmark: Enacting and implementing legislation to ensure the equitable distribution of hydrocarbon resources of the people of Iraq without regard to the sect or ethnicity of recipients, and enacting and implementing legislation to ensure that the energy resources of Iraq benefit Sunni Arabs, Shia Arabs, Kurds, and other Iraqi citizens in an equitable manner.
The contract will settle (expire) at 0 ($0.00) if the required legislation is not passed by this time
Note: The “implementation” of the legislation is not required for contract expiry. Once it has been passed into law the contract will be expired.
Expiry will be based on official and public announcements and as reported in three independent and reliable media sources.
Due to the nature of this contract please also see Contract Rule 1.9 Unforeseen Circumstances.
The Exchange reserves the right to invoke Contract Rule 1.8 (Time Protection) if deemed appropriate.
Any changes to the result after the contract has expired will not be taken into account – Exchange Rule 1.4
Please contact the exchange by emailing help@intrade.com if you have any questions regarding this contract before you place a trade.
Let’s hope that these contracts are stated correctly and that we don’t see any disputes between the traders and InTrade, at expiry time.
These are going to be extremely dicey. Considering that “assassination” would cause these contracts to be voided, I don’t see why anyone would trade the Musharraf contract, for example. It seems fairly clear that Musharraf will be in power until he is murdered. (And what if Musharraf sets up a “shadow government” or other body that contests the legitimacy of a rival government?)
Very hairy legal situation here.
The impeachment of Bush is becoming more of a reality every day. By omitting Bush from this list – (I didn’t see him listed on this or any other page) – this list reveals InTrade’s pro-Bush bias – and so we have to question to what degree InTrade is trying to manipulate perceptions and therefore markets by electing to exclude politicians they believe could be sympathetic to InTrade’s own political agenda; or so it would appear.
Shame on InTrade!
Alex Forshaw, thanks for insights.
Max Keiser:
Dick Cheney to announce his resignation on/before 31 DEC 2007
http://www.intrade.com/aav2/trading/contractInfo.jsp?conDetailID=417211&z=1185108131082
George W. Bush to be impeached by House of Representatives before end of his term in office
http://www.intrade.com/aav2/trading/contractInfo.jsp?conDetailID=467351&z=1185108233700
thanks for finding these… personally, I found IT’s July 20th announcement re: political leaders contracts to be misleading… I’ll take my complaint to them and report back on what they say.
Impeachment/resignation contracts for Bush, Cheney, and Gonzales have been open for months.
The Bush and Cheney contracts have always traded at abysmal levels. There has been much more attention devoted to Gonzales, but he isn’t going anywhere either.
I have seen absolutely no evidence of any Intrade pro-Bush bias, whatsoever.
Agree. Intrade has no pro-Bush bias.
Duly noted.