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PopSciAdmin
06-20-2007, 02:43 PM
Prediction markets work when they operate like a stock market.
beebee is spot on. Even those traders who think they’re cleverly outwitting the market are in fact doing exactly what the market requires to produce accurate probability data.
Only when many players collude to game the system do markets behave unexpectedly, which is why securities fraud can land someone in jail, and illegally gaming PPX can result in your account being suspended! But that would never happen, right?
Thanks everyone for the interesting discussion.
-PopSciAdmin
PPX Systems Admin
Fair warning folks, cheating will not be tolerated. You know who you are.
Manipulation, collusion, multiple accounts etc, I have been working with prediction markets for over 6 years and have seen it all. I have absolutely no problem assessing fines or banning accounts.
Play fair, win fair.
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PPX Systems Admin
Chris Masse’s remarks:
#1. The “PopSci Admin” is bull-shitting. Prediction markets work best when they operate like event futures markets.
#2. The anonymous poster who signs as “PPX Systems Admin” is either Sean Dunbar (the Head of Technology at the Hollywood Stock Exchange, who has been with HSX for 6 years and 9 months) or Alexander Costakis (the Managing Director at the Hollywood Stock Exchange, who has been with HSX for 6 years and 3 months). It can’t be Amy Lamare, who has been with HSX for 8 years and 4 months.
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- Alexander Costakis (Managing Director of Hollywood Stock Exchange)
- Sean Dunbar (Head of Technology at Hollywood Stock Exchange)
- Amy Lamare (Hollywood Stock Exchange Manager)
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Click here to read all the other Midas Oracle blog posts about Pop Sci’s PPX. 
