Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off
I see two similarities:
1. In both cases, the exchange managers are seeking ultra simplification and are refusing to mind the complexity.
2. In both cases, the contract statements are not articulate enough when it comes to the expiry conditions.
Max Keiser on Nate Silver: InTrade probability on ObamaCare is quite right.
Jason Ruspini on Does InTrade participate on its own prediction markets?Max Keiser on Does InTrade participate on its own prediction markets?Max Keiser on Nate Silver: InTrade probability on ObamaCare is quite right.Max Keiser on When the ObamaCare event derivative reaches 80%, I will officially declare America as a socialist country —just like France and Sweden.Jason Ruspini on OBAMACARE PREDICTION MARKET WAS BRIEFLY MANIPULATED YESTERDAY EVENING SO IT WOULD ARTIFICIALLY CLOSE AT $35. – [CHART]
Paul Hewitt on When the ObamaCare event derivative reaches 80%, I will officially declare America as a socialist country —just like France and Sweden.
Chris F. Masse on We interrupt this report to bring you some Jazz.Chris F. Masse on OBAMACARE PREDICTION MARKET WAS BRIEFLY MANIPULATED YESTERDAY EVENING SO IT WOULD ARTIFICIALLY CLOSE AT $35. – [CHART]Chris F. Masse on “InTrade should address this incident and suspend the account of whoever did this.”