J.K. Rowling’s The Deathly Hallows = Harry Potter MUST Die! + Harry Potter Must NOT Die!

The NewsFutures prediction market on Harry Potter still believes (at 75%) that the most reasonable outcome will be that J.K. Rowling lets Harry Potter survives the 7-book series. Which does not mean that that’s going to happen. The prediction market gives us an objective probability for this outcome, that’s all.

Niall O’Connor of Betting Market believes that, if William Hill opened betting lines on who killed Harry Potter, that’s because they have serious reasons to think that Harry Potter was killed off in the seventh book. Hummmm… Bookmakers are bastards, and many times in the past, those British bastards have opened bets that were 100% lost bets from the clients’ side. I have in mind some so-called “scientific bets” from Ladbrokes on issues that, when examined by real scientists, looked like they were framed to attract suckers and imbeciles.

If it were true that J.K. Rowling has already killed off Harry Potter, and that William Hill received the tip,THEN WHY IS IT THAT THE HIGH-VOLUME NEWSFUTURES PREDICTION MARKET ON HARRY POTTER DOESN’T SHOW ANY SIGN OF PESSIMISM??? Hey, if the info is out, then NewsFutures too would have received it. Niall O’Connor argues that play-money prediction markets are for suckers and the informed people go only to the bookmakers. Hummm… Niall, in this case, it’s a high-volume play-money prediction market (15,813 contracts held), which weakens your argument.

On the other side of the argumentation, the Harry Potter prediction market bears resemblance with the Olympic City prediction markets, which I have criticized as non predictive. One secretive person or group decides the outcome —and there’s no way to divine what they are going to decide because they do not judge on the basis of merit. However, there’s a big difference. In the Harry Potter case, the past is a guide, and experts can analyze J.K. Rowling’s previous six books and make up their mind. Again, no certitude, but there’s enough material to form a probability. Again, no sure thing, but at least we have a probability. See my last blog post for more.

Previous: J.K. Rowling’s The Deathly Hallows = Harry Potter MUST Die! + Harry Potter Must NOT Die!

Harry Potter will survive The Deathly Hallows.

© NewsFutures

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Static chart:

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UPDATE: The contract of the Harry Potter event derivative at NewsFutures may be flawed.

NEXT: THE FATE OF HARRY POTTER IN J.K. ROWLING’S 7TH BOOK, THE DEATHLY HALLOWS: prediction market vs. bookmaker + NEWSFUTURES JUDGES THAT HARRY POTTER IS STILL ALIVE AT THE END OF J.K. ROWLING’S 7TH NOVEL, THE DEATHLY HALLOWS.