Midas Oracle .ORG

CAT GOT PROFESSOR KOLEMAN STRUMPF’S TONGUE????

Chris F. Masse July 11th, 2007

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BetFair - Hillary Clinton as the Democratic Presidential Nominee -

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BetFair - Winning Party: Democratic -

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BetFair - 2008 Election - Female President -

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NewsFutures - Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic Presidential Nominee in 2008.

© NewsFutures

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NewsFutures - A Democrat will be elected President in 2008.

© NewsFutures

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Previous: Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market? - by Koleman Strumpf + Win Justin’s Money? (re: Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market? Redux.) - by Koleman Strumpf

UPDATE: PROFESSOR KOLEMAN STRUMPF STILL DOUBTS THAT THERE HAS BEEN MANIPULATION OF THE HILLARY CLINTON EVENT DERIVATIVES.

• Exchanges & Markets , Market Prices & Probabilities
• Comments(1)

One Response to “CAT GOT PROFESSOR KOLEMAN STRUMPF’S TONGUE????”

1. # Koleman Strumpfon 12 Jul 2007 at 12:46 am

   I think the market behavior since the original posting still could be consistent with no manipulation.

   (1) At the time of my original post (http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/31/is-there-manipulation-in-the-hillary-clinton-intrade-market/)
   Clinton’s conditional probability of getting nominated was 65%. It is now about 60%.

   (2) Is there any news which might explain this drop? Sure– the market has decided that Obama is a much stronger contender for the nomination (and conversely Hillary is weaker). Namely, since the end of May Hillary’s nomination contract fell from 51 to 43 and Obama has risen from 29 to 38. If the market thinks that the nomination is more unclear, then it is more likely there will be a protracted fight and even if Hillary gets the nod she will be weaker and not be as likely to win the general contest.

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