Comments on: CAT GOT PROFESSOR KOLEMAN STRUMPF’S TONGUE???? http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/07/11/cat-got-professor-koleman-strumpfs-tongue/ Prediction Markets For All Tue, 02 Dec 2008 15:41:14 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.5 By: Koleman Strumpf http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/07/11/cat-got-professor-koleman-strumpfs-tongue/#comment-15911 Koleman Strumpf Thu, 12 Jul 2007 04:46:48 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/07/11/cat-got-professor-koleman-strumpfs-tongue/#comment-15911 I think the market behavior since the original posting still could be consistent with no manipulation. (1) At the time of my original post (http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/31/is-there-manipulation-in-the-hillary-clinton-intrade-market/) Clinton's conditional probability of getting nominated was 65%. It is now about 60%. (2) Is there any news which might explain this drop? Sure-- the market has decided that Obama is a much stronger contender for the nomination (and conversely Hillary is weaker). Namely, since the end of May Hillary's nomination contract fell from 51 to 43 and Obama has risen from 29 to 38. If the market thinks that the nomination is more unclear, then it is more likely there will be a protracted fight and even if Hillary gets the nod she will be weaker and not be as likely to win the general contest. I think the market behavior since the original posting still could be consistent with no manipulation.

(1) At the time of my original post (http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/31/is-there-manipulation-in-the-hillary-clinton-intrade-market/)
Clinton’s conditional probability of getting nominated was 65%. It is now about 60%.

(2) Is there any news which might explain this drop? Sure– the market has decided that Obama is a much stronger contender for the nomination (and conversely Hillary is weaker). Namely, since the end of May Hillary’s nomination contract fell from 51 to 43 and Obama has risen from 29 to 38. If the market thinks that the nomination is more unclear, then it is more likely there will be a protracted fight and even if Hillary gets the nod she will be weaker and not be as likely to win the general contest.

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