Supporting Your Candidate on Inkling?

Posted on July 9, 2007 by Michael Giberson

Would a candidate for U.S. Congress advocate market manipulation?

Spotted on the “Jim Miceli for Congress” website:

Show Your Support. Buy shares of James Miceli for Congress at Inklingmarkets.com.

Unfortunately for Miceli, Inkling players are not going for him. The Miceli contract price is the blue line at the bottom of the chart.

Inkling_prices_mass_5th

The market asks “Who will win the Democratic Primary in the Massachusetts Fifth Congressional District Special Election?” (There is a complementary market for GOP candidates, though typically the district is solidly Democratic so the expectation is that the Democratic primary winner will be elected.)

The market has been very active, in part due to bloggers advocating that supporters for one or another candidate “show their support.”

Market creator, David Eisenthal, blogged about the market launch on a popular Massachusetts progressive politics blog, and word spread….

As a trader on Inkling markets, and in particular now heavily invested in this market, I say come one, come all.

About Michael Giberson

Energy Economist - Center for Energy Commerce, Rawls College of Business, Texas Tech University. - Texas, U.S.A.
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3 Responses to Supporting Your Candidate on Inkling?

  1. Chris. F. Masse says:
    July 11, 2007 at 2:26 AM

    Market Manipulation?

    by David Eisenthal

    It’s come to my attention that state Rep. Jim Miceli, a candidate for the Democratic nomination in the Massachusetts Fifth Congressional District race, has linked on his Congressional campaign website to the prediction market that I created for that race. (HT to Mike Giberson.)

    http://davideisenthal.typepad.com/the_eisenthal_report/2007/07/market-manipula.html

  2. Michael Giberson says:
    July 11, 2007 at 9:21 AM

    Curiously, the Inkling market on the outcome of the Democratic Primary for the Massachusetts 5th District in the U.S. Congress appears to be the most actively traded current market on Inkling! More trades there than for the U.S. presidential markets, the Barry Bonds home run markets, the iPhone market share market, and on and on.

    Who knew that there was such widespread interest in the race to replace retiring Congressman Marty Meehan?

    http://home.inklingmarkets.com/active/markets

    More evidence for “manipulation => volume => good for prediction markets”?

  3. Chris. F. Masse says:
    July 11, 2007 at 9:32 AM

    Hey, if that’s true, this info deserves a full blog post, not a comment seen only by 2 dozens people. :)

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