Comments on: Intrade: Obama and Clinton at near-parity http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/07/06/intrade-obama-and-clinton-at-near-parity/ Prediction Markets For All Tue, 02 Dec 2008 15:34:35 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.5 By: Chris. F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/07/06/intrade-obama-and-clinton-at-near-parity/#comment-15875 Chris. F. Masse Sat, 07 Jul 2007 07:34:49 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/07/06/intrade-obama-and-clinton-at-near-parity/#comment-15875 OK, so you think that the Barak Obama event derivative has strong legs because of the good fundraising. OK, so you think that the Barak Obama event derivative has strong legs because of the good fundraising.

]]> By: Alex Forshaw http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/07/06/intrade-obama-and-clinton-at-near-parity/#comment-15874 Alex Forshaw Sat, 07 Jul 2007 07:28:37 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/07/06/intrade-obama-and-clinton-at-near-parity/#comment-15874 I don't think manipulation is the "culprit" here. I think somebody accumulated a massive long position on Hillary which has deteriorated significantly, and which shows no prospect of significant improvement after Hillary's bad Q2 fundraising. So the person is probably facing a massive margin call and has to liquidate, so we are seeing the exact same thing with Hillary as we did with McCain 1-2 weeks ago. I don’t think manipulation is the “culprit” here. I think somebody accumulated a massive long position on Hillary which has deteriorated significantly, and which shows no prospect of significant improvement after Hillary’s bad Q2 fundraising. So the person is probably facing a massive margin call and has to liquidate, so we are seeing the exact same thing with Hillary as we did with McCain 1-2 weeks ago.

]]> By: Chris. F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/07/06/intrade-obama-and-clinton-at-near-parity/#comment-15873 Chris. F. Masse Sat, 07 Jul 2007 07:19:46 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/07/06/intrade-obama-and-clinton-at-near-parity/#comment-15873 What tells you that the recent surge in the Barak Obama event derivative is not the result of a manipulation attempt?? he he he he :) What tells you that the recent surge in the Barak Obama event derivative is not the result of a manipulation attempt?? he he he he :)

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