YES, Harry Potter will survive J.K. Rowling’s 7th installment of the saga, The Deathly Hallows.

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Via Matt Drudge, via EITB 24, a hacker whose pseudonym is “Gabriel” tells you the ending of the book, The Deathly Hallows, yet to be published. He claims to have hacked one of the computers of the publisher. The bottom line is that Harry does not die, it seems.

I have just bought all the NewsFutures “Harry Potter will survive” contracts I could snap at $80. Plus, I was granted 10 pairs of contracts thru this program, and I sold the 10 “no” contracts to some misinformed trader at $20. Here’s my VIP page at NewsFutures. [I previously flip-flopped on this issue. ]

Just a short note on the NewsFutures prediction exchange: very usable. Our good doctor EJSS and his employees are detail oriented, and I think that’s the way to go. As I have written 10 times on Midas Oracle, this is about satisfying the sophisticated bettors, not the Joe Six-Packs. The folks at Pop Sci’s PPX should take notice. You know, I am on the receiving end of many youngsters’ claims to be “the next NewsFutures”. Well, my message to them: get up earlier, boys.

Here are all the blog posts and comments written about Harry Potter on Midas Oracle.

If I’m right to trust the hacker “Gabriel” and I win this game, then I’ll publish a victory blog post against Niall O’Connor and Michael Giberson. Niall O’Connor swallowed the William Hill story (All the money was on Harry Potter to die, so they stopped taking bets) like a lake carp swallows a peanut butter doughball. But, that’s too early. Let’s wait and see.

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Harry Potter will survive The Deathly Hallows.

© NewsFutures

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UPDATE: The sentiment of the majority favors the Niall O’Connor theory that puts William Hill at the receiving end of insider information (”Harry Potter dies”), lately. And the NewsFutures market-generated probability would reflect the (misinformed, on this one) “wisdom of crowds”, which kind of senses that an author for kids will not make the hero die. We’ll see.

UPDATE #2: eWeek.com

milw0rm is a group of politically motivated “hacktivists” whose most famous exploit was penetrating the computers of the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC) in Bombay, the primary nuclear research facility of India, on June 3, 1998. They have anti-nuclear and pro-peace agendas and, in this case, anti-Harry Potter and pro-Pope Benedict XVI.

UPDATE: The contract of the Harry Potter event derivative at NewsFutures may be flawed.

NEXT: THE FATE OF HARRY POTTER IN J.K. ROWLING’S 7TH BOOK, THE DEATHLY HALLOWS: prediction market vs. bookmaker + NEWSFUTURES JUDGES THAT HARRY POTTER IS STILL ALIVE AT THE END OF J.K. ROWLING’S 7TH NOVEL, THE DEATHLY HALLOWS.

3 Comments to “YES, Harry Potter will survive J.K. Rowling’s 7th installment of the saga, The Deathly Hallows.”

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Michael Giberson

June 22, 2007 at 7:35 am | Permalink

I’m willing to be ridiculed for all my published opinions and reports Chris, but re-read my Potter post. In this case I don’t think the ridicule will have been earned by me. In the post I said:

If you are an investor trying to maximize long term returns and have no inside information, this is a case where Kelly’s criterion for betting comes into play. Kelly’s criterion for bet size can be described as “edge over odds,” implying, as Wikipedia explains: “If the gambler has no edge, … then the gambler should bet nothing.”

So if you now have an edge (based upon an internet posting about an computer hacker?? So your thinking is, “if it is on the internet, it must be true”???? This is your investment strategy?????) Anyway, I took no position on whether Harry would die, my position was only my interpretation of sensible betting analysis applied to the case of fictional events. But best of luck to you.

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Chris. F. Masse

June 22, 2007 at 7:37 am | Permalink

“making fun of” does not mean “ridiculing”

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Chris. F. Masse

June 22, 2007 at 2:34 pm | Permalink

HARRY POTTER: The hacker, known only as Gabriel, exploited the PCs of one or more employees at Bloomsbury by sending an email-borne threat.
http://www.midasoracle.org/200.....ne-threat/

REUTERS:
In the latest movie, Harry discovers he and his evil nemesis Voldemort cannot both survive, raising the possibility that one, or both of them could die in the end.
http://investing.reuters.co.uk.....#038;sz=13

HARRY POTTER: Chris Masse is a sucker, implies Niall O’Connor of Betting Market.
http://www.midasoracle.org/200.....ng-market/

Such is the rush of money for Harry Potter’s demise that William Hill has stopped taking bets as Harry Potter mania builds ahead of publication on July 21, 2007.
http://www.midasoracle.org/200.....y-21-2007/

British edition of “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows” offers more clues
http://blogs.mercurynews.com/a.....clues.html

Is This the End of Harry, on the Web?
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06.....3pott.html

The Twisted Economics Of Harry Potter
The wizard brings both profit and pain to his business partners
http://www.businessweek.com/ma....._top+story

Harry Potter printer steps up security
http://new.edp24.co.uk/content.....3A59%3A653

British printer of the 7th Harry Potter book, The Deathly Hallows, steps up security.
http://www.midasoracle.org/200.....-security/

Harry Potter and the Plot-Spoiling, Phishing Scam
http://www.eweek.com/article2/.....245,00.asp

J.K. Rowling’s The Deathly Hallows = Harry Potter MUST Die! + Harry Potter Must NOT Die!
http://www.midasoracle.org/200.....t-not-die/

J.K. Rowling’s The Deathly Hallows = Harry Potter MUST Die! + Harry Potter Must NOT Die!
http://www.midasoracle.org/200.....not-die-2/

HARRY POTTER DEATH — NewsFutures prediction market = Zogby Interactive survey
http://www.midasoracle.org/200.....ve-survey/

We, the undersigned, petition J.K. Rowling to write more new adventures for Harry Potter and his friends no matter what happens at the end of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows.
http://www.midasoracle.org/200.....y-hallows/

Deep Throat sells Harry Potter short.
http://www.midasoracle.org/200.....ter-short/

The contract of the Harry Potter event derivative at NewsFutures may be flawed.
http://www.midasoracle.org/200.....be-flawed/

The Harry Potter litmus test
http://www.midasoracle.org/200.....tmus-test/

Deep Throat on the expiry of the Harry Potter event derivative
http://www.midasoracle.org/200.....erivative/

North Korean Missile Prediction Market = Harry Potter Demise Prediction Market
http://www.midasoracle.org/200.....on-market/

Harry Potter actor Dan Radcliffe nude on Midas Oracle
http://www.midasoracle.org/200.....as-oracle/

Harry Potter actor Dan Radcliffe nude on Midas Oracle… AGAIN
http://www.midasoracle.org/200.....cle-again/

J.K. Rowling’s Harry Potter and The Deathly Hallows is now accessible via BitTorrent.
http://www.midasoracle.org/200.....ittorrent/

People are googling HARRY POTTER EPILOGUE like crazy.
http://www.midasoracle.org/200.....ike-crazy/

THE FATE OF HARRY POTTER IN J.K. ROWLING’S 7TH BOOK, THE DEATHLY HALLOWS: prediction market vs. bookmaker
http://www.midasoracle.org/200.....bookmaker/

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