Prediction Markets = Collective Forecasting = Collective Intelligence That Predicts

Some prediction exchanges should follow the BetZip.com model.

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Says the all-excited Mike Linksvayer –(I’ve never seen him that excited, apart from the perspective of a George W. Bush impeachment):

Great idea! A PM should do this, right now, taking care to create real money incentives and not encourage risky bets. I’ve thought of the possibility of a no-downside-risk PM that only shared advertising revenue with players proportionately to their performance, but the money involved would be too little to be meaningful, or so I guessed. However, if BetZip is right[,] the money could be made “real” by permitting arbitrarily large subscription fees.

On the Betcha.com front, just a follow-up note. Its founders (Nick Jenkins) has 4 or 5 counter-arguments to Tom Bell’s take, but won’t share them publicly (i.e., with his competitors). “He’ll share them with the judge”, replied the ironic Deep Throat. :) We wish Nick Jenkins the very best.

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