Mr. Sarkozy’s party won 314 seats, a loss of 45 members; the Socialists won 185 seats, a gain of 36, according to Interior Ministry figures issued early Monday morning.
Polls had predicted a Republican landslide, and so did the gregarious prediction markets. NewsFutures France (using play money) was the only prediction exchange (betting exchange) to organize prediction markets on this second leg of the renewal of the French political life, following the departure of Jacques Chirac.
Spot the correction that the traders were hastily doing as soon as the first preliminary results came in… look at the right end of each of the two charts:
- Percentage of Republican Representatives (spot the drop from 80% circa yesterday morning):
- At least one Republican Secretary of State won’t be re-elected as Representative (spot the hike from 10% circa yesterday morning):
