Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off
Once again, the NewsFutures visual representations are criticized:
The [] image with the heads is what Tufte calls chart-junk. While 48 is abt. 50% bigger than 30, because they scale a 2d image, Hillary’s head looks 4 times as big as Obama’s.
Read Emile Servan-Schreiber’s rebuttal, circa May 2007, and decide whether you side with him or his numerous critics.
You can follow all the replies to this entry through the comments feed.
Paul Hewitt on “In 1965, Congress said Medicare would cost $9 billion by 1990. In reality, it cost $67 billion –seven times more than the prediction.”
Chris F. Masse on “In 1965, Congress said Medicare would cost $9 billion by 1990. In reality, it cost $67 billion –seven times more than the prediction.”Paul Hewitt on “In 1965, Congress said Medicare would cost $9 billion by 1990. In reality, it cost $67 billion –seven times more than the prediction.”
Max Keiser on Nate Silver: InTrade probability on ObamaCare is quite right.
Jason Ruspini on Does InTrade participate on its own prediction markets?Max Keiser on Does InTrade participate on its own prediction markets?Max Keiser on Nate Silver: InTrade probability on ObamaCare is quite right.Max Keiser on When the ObamaCare event derivative reaches 80%, I will officially declare America as a socialist country —just like France and Sweden.Jason Ruspini on OBAMACARE PREDICTION MARKET WAS BRIEFLY MANIPULATED YESTERDAY EVENING SO IT WOULD ARTIFICIALLY CLOSE AT $35. – [CHART]Paul Hewitt on When the ObamaCare event derivative reaches 80%, I will officially declare America as a socialist country —just like France and Sweden.
EJSS has a fanboy who loves the NewsFutures visual representation of the primaries:
Great visual display of presidential prediction market
http://tech.puredanger.com/2007/06/18/prediction-visual/
That blogger does not give any argument, though.
UPDATE: The guy is a software engineer.
http://tech.puredanger.com/about/