David Pennock has a long, smart and interesting write-up on the Media Predict rationale.

[...] People are persuaded by influencers and influenced by persuaders. People respond in whole or in part to the counsel of critics, peers, viruses, and (yes) advertisers. So, what becomes popular is not simply a matter of what is good. What becomes popular depends on a complex dynamic process of spreading influence that’s hard to track and even harder to predict. [...]

MY THOUGHT: So, in terms of advanced indicators, what do we have, if we follow Pennock’s logic (as I interpret it thru my reading)? Number one, watch for the quality of the piece. Either we read the book to assess it or we read the reviews. Hmm… Plenty of good books don’t make it. Plus, some successful books like The Wisdom Of Crowds or Freakonomics are derided by some experts who say they lack seriousness, and still ended up on the New York Times best-sellers list anyway. So Pennock’s first criterion is debatable. Number two, watch for either the media coverage and/or the word-of-mouth on the Web. Hummm… Ultimately… you know what?… if I had to choose an advanced indicator, I would monitor the Web about the book in question… via Google Search, Google News and Google Feed Search.

COUNTER THOUGHT: Would the noise on the Web be an advanced indicator, really? Logically, most of the bloggers and chatters raving about the book in question would have already bought it… and thus would be already known to the publisher’s accountant.

RELATED THOUGHT #1: Hummm… David Pennock’s idea to link prediction markets and search engine results was not that rotten after all. Maybe he did it the converse way. Maybe he should create a kind of plugin, attached to our traditional, existing prediction markets, and that would analyze the Web traffic in order to alert us for our trading.

RELATED THOUGHT #2: Is a book success more difficult to predict than a sport event?

RELATED THOUGHT #3: The problematic of the book publishing industry has more to do with managing the long tail than with predicting future commercial successes. What sucks is the printing thing. Replace it with electronic ink, and then you’ll improve profitability because old electronic books will always be available at near-zero cost for the publisher.

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