Second Workshop on Prediction Markets – San Diego, California, U.S.A. – June 12, 2007
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8:30 – 8:35 Opening remark
8:35 – 9:30
- Amit Gandhi, “Rational Expectations at the Racetrack : Testing Expected Utility Using Prediction Market Prices” (20 min)
- Ricardo Serrano-Padial, “Strategic Foundations of Prediction Markets and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis” (20 min)
- Discussant (10 min) Erik Snowberg
- Q&A (5 min)
9:30 – 10:00 Mini Panel on Political Election
- Lance Fortnow, University of Chicago
- Eric Zitzewitz, Stanford University
10:00 – 10:20 Morning Break
10:20 – 11:15
- Paul J. Healy, John O. Ledyard, Sera Linardi, and J. Richard Lowery, “Information Aggregation Mechanisms and Environmental Complexity” (20 min)
- Stefan Luckner, “A Field Experiment on Monetary Incentives in Prediction Markets” (20 min)
- Discussant (10min) Michael Wellman
- Q&A (5 min)
11:15 – 1:30 Lunch Break
1:30 – 2:25
- Wolfgang Jank and Natasha Foutz, “Using Virtual Stock Exchanges to Forecast Box-Office Revenue via Functional Shape Analysis” (20 min)
- Steven Gjerstad, “Risk Aversion, Beliefs, and Prediction Market Equilibrium” (20 min)
- Discussant (10 min) Eric Zitzewitz
- Q&A (5 min)
2:25 – 3:20
- Dirk Glienke, Bernd H. Ankenbrand, and Michael Gebauer, “Communicating Strategy with Information Markets” (20 min)
- Michael Abramowicz, “The Hidden Beauty of the Quadratic Market Scoring Rule: A Uniform Liquidity Market Maker, with Variations“ (20 min)
- Discussant (10 min) Chris Hibbert
- Q&A (5 min)
3:20 – 3:50 Afternoon break
3:50 – 4:45
- Stanko Dimitrov and Rahul Sami, “Non-myopic Strategies in Prediction Markets” (20 min)
- Yiling Chen, Daniel M. Reeves, David M. Pennock, Robin D. Hanson, and Rica Gonen, “Bluffing and Strategic Reticence in Prediction Markets” (20 min)
- Discussant (10 min) Paul J. Healy
- Q&A (5 min)
4:45 – 5:45 Industrial Panel
- Russell Anderson, HedgeStreet
- Matthew Fogarty, Electronic Arts
- David Perry, Consensus Point
- Emile Servan-Schreiber, Newsfutures
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