Sherlock Holmes (the good) and Professor Moriarty (the villain) fell together in the Reichenbach Falls. Sherlock Holmes is thought to be dead. Many years later, he re-appears, to the astonishment of his Doctor Watson.
–> Let’s say there were a prediction market on the Sherlock Holmes survival, which was bound to expire just after the Reichenbach Falls episode. It would have expired on the “no” side —although the ultimate truth was going to be that Sherlock Holmes was still alive
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P.S.: In the future, prediction exchanges will organize prediction markets based on fictional events.
