As you have seen, Marginal Revolution has linked to a Bloomberg story quoting bookmaker William Hill. All the money was on Harry Potter to die, so they stopped taking bets. Hmmm…
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[...] Last Week, at the HP Panel at Oasis, we discussed whether his death was imminent. The consensus was that it was not. One of the most eloquent arguments was by one audience member that having him die after undergoing all his struggles would send children who had enjoyed the series the wrong message. I can’t disagree. [...] It could just be me, but I can’t quite see launching a theme park based on a dead literary character.
Here’s the website of the future Harry Potter theme park in Orlando, Florida.
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© NewsFutures
Harry Potter will survive The Deathly Hallows.
DISCLOSURE: The author of this blog post is long on the Harry Potter survival. 
What is the conclusion to be drawn here?
In a market such as this, the outcome will already be known, by certain people.
Are we too assume that these individuals choose to bet with traditional risk-averse bookmakers such as William Hill, forcing said bookmakers to close their books on the event?
And that the uniformed, who know nothing, but cannot believe that Harry Potter will be killed off, choose to bet on News Futures?
Niall, I know nothing about Harry Potter. I just decided to bet on his survival:
1. to use my NewsFutures account
2. to follow the “wisdom of crowds”
I’m just an ignorant follower.
As for your main question about the discrepancy between William Hill and NewsFutures, yes, I’m also troubled by this… Let’s wait a bit and we will see if the NewsFutures price change…
Niall, why is it that the bookies are taking bets for the killer, then??
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THE FATE OF HARRY POTTER IN J.K. ROWLING’S 7TH BOOK, THE DEATHLY HALLOWS: prediction market vs. bookmaker
http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/07/23/the-fate-of-harry-potter-in-jk-rowlings-7th-book-the-deathly-hallows-prediction-market-vs-bookmaker/