8 hours ago on Midas Oracle, I talked about how “prediction markets on international, federal and state law-making politics” make sense.
Well, turned out Chris Masse was prescient, once again. –> InTrade-TradeSports has just announced a set of U.S. legislation prediction markets.
US Legislation Markets
Friday, Jun 1, 2007The Exchange has begun listing markets on the passage of US legislation. These contracts can be found under Politics — US Legislation.
At present we have two items listed: the Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act 2007 and the possible reinstatement of the Fairness Doctrine.
The rules for these contracts are as follows:IMMIGRATION.SENATE.DEC07
This contract will settle (expire) at 100 ($10.00) if the Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act 2007 is passed by the Senate on or before 11:59:59pm ET on the date specified in the contract.
This contract will settle (expire) at 0 ($0.00) if this legislation is NOT passed by the Senate on or before this time.
Expiry will be based on official announcements from the Senate and as reported in three reliable and independent media sources.
Any amendments made to the bill during committee or conference proceedings, or on the floor of the Senate will not be considered for expiry purposes.IMMIGRATION.CONGRESS.DEC07
This contract will settle (expire) at 100 ($10.00) if the Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act 2007 is passed by BOTH the House of Representatives and Senate on or before 11:59:59pm ET on the date specified in the contract.
This contract will settle (expire) at 0 ($0.00) if this legislation is NOT passed by BOTH the House of Representatives and Senate on or before this time.
Expiry will be based on official announcements from the House of Representatives and the Senate and as reported in three reliable and independent media sources.
Any amendments made to the bill during committee or conference proceedings, or on the floor of the House or Senate will not be considered for expiry purposes.FAIRNESS.CONGRESS.DEC07
This contract will settle (expire) at 100 ($10.00) if reinstatement of the Fairness Doctrine is passed by Congress (both the House and Senate) on or before 11:59:59pm ET on the date specified in the contract.
This contract will settle (expire) at 0 ($0.00) if reinstatement of the Fairness Doctrine is NOT passed by Congress (both the House and Senate) on or before this time.
Expiry will be based on official announcements from Congress and as reported in three reliable and independent media sources.
Expiry is dependent only upon the actions of Congress. Any subsequent decision by the President to sign or veto the law will not be considered for expiry purposes.Due to the nature of these contracts please also see Contract Rule 1.9 Unforeseen Circumstances.
The Exchange reserves the right to invoke Contract Rule 1.8 (Time Protection) for both contracts if deemed appropriate.
Any changes to the result after the contracts have expired will not be taken into account – Exchange Rule 1.4
Please contact the exchange by emailing help@intrade.com if you have any questions regarding these contracts before you place a trade.
