Comments on: Win Justin’s Money? (re: Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market? Redux.) http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/31/win-justins-money-re-is-there-manipulation-in-the-hillary-clinton-intrade-market-redux/ Prediction Markets For All Tue, 02 Dec 2008 19:03:21 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.5 By: Chris. F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/31/win-justins-money-re-is-there-manipulation-in-the-hillary-clinton-intrade-market-redux/#comment-15700 Chris. F. Masse Thu, 31 May 2007 17:54:24 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/31/win-justins-money-re-is-there-manipulation-in-the-hillary-clinton-intrade-market-redux/#comment-15700 <p>BetFair Historical Data<br /> http://data.betfair.com/</p> CAT GOT PROFESSOR KOLEMAN STRUMPF’S TONGUE???? http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/07/11/cat-got-professor-koleman-strumpfs-tongue/ PROFESSOR KOLEMAN STRUMPF STILL DOUBTS THAT THERE HAS BEEN MANIPULATION OF THE HILLARY CLINTON EVENT DERIVATIVES. http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/07/12/professor-koleman-strumpf-still-doubts-that-there-has-been-manipulation-of-the-hillary-clinton-event-derivatives/ BetFair Historical Data
http://data.betfair.com/

CAT GOT PROFESSOR KOLEMAN STRUMPF’S TONGUE????
http://www.midasoracle.org/200.....fs-tongue/

PROFESSOR KOLEMAN STRUMPF STILL DOUBTS THAT THERE HAS BEEN MANIPULATION OF THE HILLARY CLINTON EVENT DERIVATIVES.
http://www.midasoracle.org/200.....rivatives/

]]> By: Eric Zitzewitz http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/31/win-justins-money-re-is-there-manipulation-in-the-hillary-clinton-intrade-market-redux/#comment-15699 Eric Zitzewitz Thu, 31 May 2007 17:42:37 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/31/win-justins-money-re-is-there-manipulation-in-the-hillary-clinton-intrade-market-redux/#comment-15699 Chicken. In all seriousness, it is interesting that other exchanges have followed Intrade. This probably means that we should think of these markets as one large linked market. As Alex Forshaw pointed out, comparing bid/ask sizes and volumes at Betfair and Intrade suggests that most of the market is at Intrade. (It'd be nice to know how much volume the various bookies are doing). I did check Betfair before making the comment at Palm Desert, and it was Bid 27/Ask 33 or so (when Intrade was at 40), so the spike must have been afterwards (I wish BetFair put time on their graphs). Probably the case that whoever drove the price up at Intrade did not have a Betfair account, and it took a little while for someone with accounts both places to jump on the arb. Chicken.

In all seriousness, it is interesting that other exchanges have followed Intrade. This probably means that we should think of these markets as one large linked market. As Alex Forshaw pointed out, comparing bid/ask sizes and volumes at Betfair and Intrade suggests that most of the market is at Intrade. (It’d be nice to know how much volume the various bookies are doing).

I did check Betfair before making the comment at Palm Desert, and it was Bid 27/Ask 33 or so (when Intrade was at 40), so the spike must have been afterwards (I wish BetFair put time on their graphs). Probably the case that whoever drove the price up at Intrade did not have a Betfair account, and it took a little while for someone with accounts both places to jump on the arb.

]]>