Comments on: Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market? http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/31/is-there-manipulation-in-the-hillary-clinton-intrade-market/ Prediction Markets For All Tue, 02 Dec 2008 16:43:49 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.5 By: The gamble of downplaying manipulation | Midas Oracle .ORG http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/31/is-there-manipulation-in-the-hillary-clinton-intrade-market/#comment-22151 The gamble of downplaying manipulation | Midas Oracle .ORG Sat, 18 Oct 2008 16:18:40 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/31/is-there-manipulation-in-the-hillary-clinton-intrade-market/#comment-22151 [...] HRC attack, part 2 The Giuliani manipulator buyer is back. Manipulation can affect prices. Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market? Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market? Redux Measured Enthusiasm For [...] [...] HRC attack, part 2 The Giuliani manipulator buyer is back. Manipulation can affect prices. Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market? Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market? Redux Measured Enthusiasm For [...]

]]> By: Where is the post-election academic conference on prediction market performance? | Midas Oracle .ORG http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/31/is-there-manipulation-in-the-hillary-clinton-intrade-market/#comment-22025 Where is the post-election academic conference on prediction market performance? | Midas Oracle .ORG Tue, 07 Oct 2008 21:09:55 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/31/is-there-manipulation-in-the-hillary-clinton-intrade-market/#comment-22025 [...] periodic allegations of manipulation and related analysis (and here, and here, and here, and here, etc.), innovations in market design (and disputations thereof) and various claims of market [...] [...] periodic allegations of manipulation and related analysis (and here, and here, and here, and here, etc.), innovations in market design (and disputations thereof) and various claims of market [...]

]]> By: David Pennock http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/31/is-there-manipulation-in-the-hillary-clinton-intrade-market/#comment-15701 David Pennock Thu, 31 May 2007 19:40:14 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/31/is-there-manipulation-in-the-hillary-clinton-intrade-market/#comment-15701 > difficult to use this story to explain the odds posted at bookmakers like Ladbrokes For the bookmaker quotes, are those both buy and "sell" odds? In order for there to be a true arbitrage, they need to allow bettors to place a "not Hillary" bet at similar odds. Otherwise, it could just be a non-uniform bookmaker tax/vig. > difficult to use this story to explain the odds posted at bookmakers like Ladbrokes

For the bookmaker quotes, are those both buy and “sell” odds? In order for there to be a true arbitrage, they need to allow bettors to place a “not Hillary” bet at similar odds. Otherwise, it could just be a non-uniform bookmaker tax/vig.

]]> By: Chris. F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/31/is-there-manipulation-in-the-hillary-clinton-intrade-market/#comment-15698 Chris. F. Masse Thu, 31 May 2007 15:54:55 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/31/is-there-manipulation-in-the-hillary-clinton-intrade-market/#comment-15698 <p>Justin Wolfers' answer:</p> <p>Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market? Redux.<br /> http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/31/is-there-manipulation-in-the-hillary-clinton-intrade-market-redux/</p> CAT GOT PROFESSOR KOLEMAN STRUMPF’S TONGUE???? http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/07/11/cat-got-professor-koleman-strumpfs-tongue/ PROFESSOR KOLEMAN STRUMPF STILL DOUBTS THAT THERE HAS BEEN MANIPULATION OF THE HILLARY CLINTON EVENT DERIVATIVES. http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/07/12/professor-koleman-strumpf-still-doubts-that-there-has-been-manipulation-of-the-hillary-clinton-event-derivatives/ Justin Wolfers’ answer:

Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market? Redux.
http://www.midasoracle.org/200.....ket-redux/

CAT GOT PROFESSOR KOLEMAN STRUMPF’S TONGUE????
http://www.midasoracle.org/200.....fs-tongue/

PROFESSOR KOLEMAN STRUMPF STILL DOUBTS THAT THERE HAS BEEN MANIPULATION OF THE HILLARY CLINTON EVENT DERIVATIVES.
http://www.midasoracle.org/200.....rivatives/

]]> By: Alex Forshaw http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/31/is-there-manipulation-in-the-hillary-clinton-intrade-market/#comment-15695 Alex Forshaw Thu, 31 May 2007 11:27:21 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/31/is-there-manipulation-in-the-hillary-clinton-intrade-market/#comment-15695 It is hard to differentiate between "manipulation" and a new buyer showing up and pushing in a big chip stack because the buyer legitimately believes a security is mispriced. I will say that a manipulator would probably be fine just attacking the Intrade markets, because that's where the vast majority of the volume is, and other markets should, given a little time, fall into orbit around price fluctuations at Intrade. Other than the 2008PRES.HILLARY contract, nothing seems particularly out of line to me. One, I don't know if the smaller Betfair market was simply mirroring the larger Intrade one on its own accord (traders there following Intrade's lead) as opposed to manipulation; and two, is there any way you can get more specific dates? If all those spikes fell within 24 hours of each other, or closer, that would be much more convincing. It is hard to differentiate between “manipulation” and a new buyer showing up and pushing in a big chip stack because the buyer legitimately believes a security is mispriced.

I will say that a manipulator would probably be fine just attacking the Intrade markets, because that’s where the vast majority of the volume is, and other markets should, given a little time, fall into orbit around price fluctuations at Intrade.

Other than the 2008PRES.HILLARY contract, nothing seems particularly out of line to me. One, I don’t know if the smaller Betfair market was simply mirroring the larger Intrade one on its own accord (traders there following Intrade’s lead) as opposed to manipulation; and two, is there any way you can get more specific dates? If all those spikes fell within 24 hours of each other, or closer, that would be much more convincing.

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