Comments on: Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market? Redux. http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/31/is-there-manipulation-in-the-hillary-clinton-intrade-market-redux/ Prediction Markets For All Tue, 02 Dec 2008 20:57:18 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.5 By: Eric Zitzewitz http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/31/is-there-manipulation-in-the-hillary-clinton-intrade-market-redux/#comment-15705 Eric Zitzewitz Fri, 01 Jun 2007 16:38:36 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/31/is-there-manipulation-in-the-hillary-clinton-intrade-market-redux/#comment-15705 In fairness to Justin, I think 38.2 was the current price at the time he posted. It's been bouncing around between 33 and 38 as the bid side of the order book gets eaten away at and then refreshed. I'd be happy to accept Koleman's bet at whatever the current bid-ask midpoint is, provided its above 32. That is, if he's not chicken. :-) In fairness to Justin, I think 38.2 was the current price at the time he posted. It’s been bouncing around between 33 and 38 as the bid side of the order book gets eaten away at and then refreshed.

I’d be happy to accept Koleman’s bet at whatever the current bid-ask midpoint is, provided its above 32. That is, if he’s not chicken. :-)

]]> By: Robin Hanson http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/31/is-there-manipulation-in-the-hillary-clinton-intrade-market-redux/#comment-15703 Robin Hanson Fri, 01 Jun 2007 08:28:47 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/31/is-there-manipulation-in-the-hillary-clinton-intrade-market-redux/#comment-15703 When there is a betting market on some topic, offers to bet outside that market at odds that differ from those expressed in that market will obviously favor one party at the expense of the other, relative to the opportunities available in the market. When there is a betting market on some topic, offers to bet outside that market at odds that differ from those expressed in that market will obviously favor one party at the expense of the other, relative to the opportunities available in the market.

]]> By: Eric Zitzewitz http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/31/is-there-manipulation-in-the-hillary-clinton-intrade-market-redux/#comment-15697 Eric Zitzewitz Thu, 31 May 2007 15:40:02 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/31/is-there-manipulation-in-the-hillary-clinton-intrade-market-redux/#comment-15697 <p>He he. I love it: from "beyond a reasonable doubt" to a "preponderance of confidence." I totally want in. I'll take payment in Paso Robles Syrah.</p> <p>But I hate to tell you Justin, we've been anticipated by Robin yet again:</p> <a href="http://hanson.gmu.edu/gamble.html">Could Gambling Save Science </a> He he. I love it: from “beyond a reasonable doubt” to a “preponderance of confidence.” I totally want in. I’ll take payment in Paso Robles Syrah.

But I hate to tell you Justin, we’ve been anticipated by Robin yet again:

Could Gambling Save Science

]]> By: Chris. F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/31/is-there-manipulation-in-the-hillary-clinton-intrade-market-redux/#comment-15696 Chris. F. Masse Thu, 31 May 2007 15:26:43 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/31/is-there-manipulation-in-the-hillary-clinton-intrade-market-redux/#comment-15696 <p>"do we have a useful mechanism for resolving scientific disputes?"</p> <p>I'm a believer in the scientific approach.<br /> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method</p> <p>If I were Koleman Strumpf (but I'm not), I would not take any bet. I would wait the other economists to weigh in (I am curious about any pertinent and mutant ideas they may have on this), and the facts to come in, and see whether they fit the hypothesis/theory.</p> <p>Plus, just a last word: Somebody who is in the minority can later on win the scientific debate. So I don't care about the economists' consensus on this ---only the scientific truth counts. And it could come soon or a bit later. To frame right away a betting horizon is a bit cocky. I'd be prudent.</p> Win Justin’s Money? (re: Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market? Redux.) - by Koleman Strumpf http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/31/win-justins-money-re-is-there-manipulation-in-the-hillary-clinton-intrade-market-redux/ <p>CAT GOT PROFESSOR KOLEMAN STRUMPF’S TONGUE????<br /> http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/07/11/cat-got-professor-koleman-strumpfs-tongue/</p> <p>PROFESSOR KOLEMAN STRUMPF STILL DOUBTS THAT THERE HAS BEEN MANIPULATION OF THE HILLARY CLINTON EVENT DERIVATIVES.<br /> http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/07/12/professor-koleman-strumpf-still-doubts-that-there-has-been-manipulation-of-the-hillary-clinton-event-derivatives/</p> “do we have a useful mechanism for resolving scientific disputes?”

I’m a believer in the scientific approach.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method

If I were Koleman Strumpf (but I’m not), I would not take any bet. I would wait the other economists to weigh in (I am curious about any pertinent and mutant ideas they may have on this), and the facts to come in, and see whether they fit the hypothesis/theory.

Plus, just a last word: Somebody who is in the minority can later on win the scientific debate. So I don’t care about the economists’ consensus on this —only the scientific truth counts. And it could come soon or a bit later. To frame right away a betting horizon is a bit cocky. I’d be prudent.

Win Justin’s Money? (re: Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market? Redux.) - by Koleman Strumpf
http://www.midasoracle.org/200.....ket-redux/

CAT GOT PROFESSOR KOLEMAN STRUMPF’S TONGUE????
http://www.midasoracle.org/200.....fs-tongue/

PROFESSOR KOLEMAN STRUMPF STILL DOUBTS THAT THERE HAS BEEN MANIPULATION OF THE HILLARY CLINTON EVENT DERIVATIVES.
http://www.midasoracle.org/200.....rivatives/

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