Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off
Paul N. on a comment at Marginal Revolution:
Real world examples keep hurting Robin’s theories. If we can’t get a liquid market for something with as wide appeal as this, how do we expect to be able to use markets to do stuff like decide who should be CEO of a company, etc.?
Good point. However, keep in mind that Robin Hanson and Tom Bell want think tanks to subsidy the traders.
Chris F. Masse on “In 1965, Congress said Medicare would cost $9 billion by 1990. In reality, it cost $67 billion –seven times more than the prediction.”Chris F. Masse on “In 1965, Congress said Medicare would cost $9 billion by 1990. In reality, it cost $67 billion –seven times more than the prediction.”Chris F. Masse on “In 1965, Congress said Medicare would cost $9 billion by 1990. In reality, it cost $67 billion –seven times more than the prediction.”
Paul Hewitt on “In 1965, Congress said Medicare would cost $9 billion by 1990. In reality, it cost $67 billion –seven times more than the prediction.”Chris F. Masse on “In 1965, Congress said Medicare would cost $9 billion by 1990. In reality, it cost $67 billion –seven times more than the prediction.”Paul Hewitt on “In 1965, Congress said Medicare would cost $9 billion by 1990. In reality, it cost $67 billion –seven times more than the prediction.”
Max Keiser on Nate Silver: InTrade probability on ObamaCare is quite right.
Jason Ruspini on Does InTrade participate on its own prediction markets?Max Keiser on Does InTrade participate on its own prediction markets?Max Keiser on Nate Silver: InTrade probability on ObamaCare is quite right.