Via Bo Cowgill, Foreign Policy (which brought us the fake Wolfo memo last month):
[...] In theory, a quiet, dispersed buy of these very cheap contracts coupled with a well-timed leak could be a quick way to get some cash into the Palestinian Authority’s bare coffers. And Hamas wouldn’t even have to recognize Israel: Just whisper in the ear of a New York Times reporter that a deal is in the works, sell when the price spikes, and then deny the story. [...]
I’m not sure the InTrade-TradeSports (or BetFair) event derivative traders would rush to buy just after reading just one story based on one leak. Before putting their money at stake, they would research the issue. There is a space of two or three days, I believe, between the date a story surfaces and the date the prediction market begins to become vibrant.
Plus, selling quick in thin markets is not that easy, as Alex Forshaw will tell you.
Previous: FAKE WORLD BANK MEMO: Harvard professor of economics Kenneth Rogoff laughs in Paul Wolfowitz’s face. + INSIDER TRADING: World Bank employees speculating on the Paul Wolfowitz event derivatives at InTrade-TradeSports??
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