Can long-term prediction markets assess the academics (like Robin Hanson)??

—

Overcoming Whatever dot com:

• create a perpetual process wherein historians evaluate the influence of academics from a century before,
• create long term betting markets that estimate today the influence evaluations of those future historians [*], and
• each year give N new prizes to the N living people who have not yet won, for whom the betting markets show the highest positive influence estimates. [**]

Under this system people would stop lobbying the prize committee, and start to lobby market speculators and future historians. [***]

[*] I like the idea, as long as the historians are blogging quite frequently to give clues to traders about how they are going to grade the academics in the future. Think advanced indicators, doc.

[**] Hmmmm… Self-fulling prophecy, doc?? What would be the expiry rules? What would be the external information source judging this? Your thinking is fuzzy on this, doc. Not clear —to me, at least.

[***] You can’t really lobby market speculators, unless they are uninformed traders (described by Wolfers and Zitzewitz). What is needed here is a handbook for active speculators (the human market makers). How would they make money on your long-term prediction markets? What are the practicalities of all these world-changing ideas, doc?