Comments on: Bob Hahn turns the PETITION into a CONSENSUS. http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/11/bob-hahn-turns-the-petition-into-a-consensus/ Prediction Markets, etc. Thu, 02 Feb 2012 23:13:18 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Jason Ruspini http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/11/bob-hahn-turns-the-petition-into-a-consensus/#comment-15607 Jason Ruspini Sat, 12 May 2007 14:11:23 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/11/bob-hahn-turnes-the-petition-into-a-consensus/#comment-15607 The string “profit incentives that encourage..." is trivially true for any business, say one that threatens local merchants while selling them "insurance". The string “profit incentives that encourage…” is trivially true for any business, say one that threatens local merchants while selling them “insurance”.

]]> By: Chris. F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/11/bob-hahn-turns-the-petition-into-a-consensus/#comment-15605 Chris. F. Masse Sat, 12 May 2007 00:25:05 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/11/bob-hahn-turnes-the-petition-into-a-consensus/#comment-15605 ... and *non-capped* exchanges create "profit incentives that encourage participants to search for better information". --- Economists Speak Out on Prediction Markets by Steven D. Levitt on 08 May 2007 http://www.freakonomics.com/blog/2007/05/08/economists-speak-out-on-prediction-markets/ Chris Masse’s comment on the Freakonomics blog post about the legality of US prediction markets http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/08/chris-masses-comment-on-the-freakonomics-blog-post-about-the-legality-of-us-prediction-markets/ PREDICTION MARKET PETITION: Robin Hanson vs. Steve Levitt http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/09/prediction-market-petition-robin-hanson-vs-steve-levitt/ The limitations of logic (and the need for passion) http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/10/the-limitations-of-logic-and-the-need-for-passion/ TechDirt Economists Want Legal Protection For Prediction Markets http://techdirt.com/articles/20070507/115848.shtml 10 comments (including our Mike Linksvayer :) ) Safe Harbor Letter too Timid - by Chris Hibbert http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/10/i-can-see-why-they-limited-their-goals-as-they-did-and-i-agree-that-everything-they-advocated-should-be-legal-but-i-think-they-may-have-limited-their-objectives-just-enough-to-prevent-any-big-wins/ Bob Hahn turns the PETITION into a CONSENSUS. http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/11/bob-hahn-turns-the-petition-into-a-consensus/ Squawk on Prediction Markets http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/16/squawk-on-prediction-markets/ … and *non-capped* exchanges create “profit incentives that encourage participants to search for better information”.

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Economists Speak Out on Prediction Markets
by Steven D. Levitt on 08 May 2007
http://www.freakonomics.com/blog/2007/05/08/economists-speak-out-on-prediction-markets/

Chris Masse’s comment on the Freakonomics blog post about the legality of US prediction markets
http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/08/chris-masses-comment-on-the-freakonomics-blog-post-about-the-legality-of-us-prediction-markets/

PREDICTION MARKET PETITION: Robin Hanson vs. Steve Levitt
http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/09/prediction-market-petition-robin-hanson-vs-steve-levitt/

The limitations of logic (and the need for passion)
http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/10/the-limitations-of-logic-and-the-need-for-passion/

TechDirt
Economists Want Legal Protection For Prediction Markets
http://techdirt.com/articles/20070507/115848.shtml
10 comments (including our Mike Linksvayer :) )

Safe Harbor Letter too Timid – by Chris Hibbert
http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/10/i-can-see-why-they-limited-their-goals-as-they-did-and-i-agree-that-everything-they-advocated-should-be-legal-but-i-think-they-may-have-limited-their-objectives-just-enough-to-prevent-any-big-wins/

Bob Hahn turns the PETITION into a CONSENSUS.
http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/11/bob-hahn-turns-the-petition-into-a-consensus/

Squawk on Prediction Markets
http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/16/squawk-on-prediction-markets/

]]> By: Jason Ruspini http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/11/bob-hahn-turns-the-petition-into-a-consensus/#comment-15603 Jason Ruspini Fri, 11 May 2007 22:06:18 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/11/bob-hahn-turnes-the-petition-into-a-consensus/#comment-15603 It's not contradictory in the sense that while the exchange will not be run for profit, the traders will have a (capped) profit motivation. But yes, the pragmatic question aside, for-profit exchanges should be run better than non-profit ones. It’s not contradictory in the sense that while the exchange will not be run for profit, the traders will have a (capped) profit motivation. But yes, the pragmatic question aside, for-profit exchanges should be run better than non-profit ones.

]]> By: Michael Giberson http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/11/bob-hahn-turns-the-petition-into-a-consensus/#comment-15601 Michael Giberson Fri, 11 May 2007 20:37:12 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/11/bob-hahn-turnes-the-petition-into-a-consensus/#comment-15601 The full Hahn-Tetlock article is available from AEI-Brookings at: http://www.aei-brookings.org/policy/page.php?id=289 . My <strong>initial reaction to Levitt's remarks was to approve of the effort to distinguish between PM and gambling more generally</strong>. (See post here: http://www.knowledgeproblem.com/archives/002033.html) <strong>But why "not for profit"? Why primarily for "research"?</strong> Obviously, when gathering a "consensus" from a bunch of academics (and one think tanker), it doesn't cost them much to sacrifice a possibility for potentially profitable, commercial PMs -- it isn't the business that they are in. In fact, <strong>at some level commercial PMs are competitors to not-for-profit & research oriented ventures</strong>. In this respect, it begins to sound like a traditional rent-seeking petition to the government, rather than the public spirited campaign to free PMs. The full Hahn-Tetlock article is available from AEI-Brookings at: http://www.aei-brookings.org/policy/page.php?id=289 .

My initial reaction to Levitt’s remarks was to approve of the effort to distinguish between PM and gambling more generally. (See post here: http://www.knowledgeproblem.com/archives/002033.html)

But why “not for profit”? Why primarily for “research”? Obviously, when gathering a “consensus” from a bunch of academics (and one think tanker), it doesn’t cost them much to sacrifice a possibility for potentially profitable, commercial PMs — it isn’t the business that they are in.

In fact, at some level commercial PMs are competitors to not-for-profit & research oriented ventures. In this respect, it begins to sound like a traditional rent-seeking petition to the government, rather than the public spirited campaign to free PMs.

]]> By: Chris. F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/11/bob-hahn-turns-the-petition-into-a-consensus/#comment-15597 Chris. F. Masse Fri, 11 May 2007 16:39:08 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/11/bob-hahn-turnes-the-petition-into-a-consensus/#comment-15597 Excellent remark, mister Caveat Bettor. Excellent remark, mister Caveat Bettor.

]]> By: Caveat Bettor http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/11/bob-hahn-turns-the-petition-into-a-consensus/#comment-15596 Caveat Bettor Fri, 11 May 2007 16:33:17 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/05/11/bob-hahn-turnes-the-petition-into-a-consensus/#comment-15596 Is it possible that someone could say: <blockquote>And they create straightforward profit incentives that encourage participants to search for better information,</blockquote> and <blockquote>suggests the creation of a safe harbor for small-stakes, not-for-profit prediction markets </blockquote> in the same op-ed? <strong>Make up your mind --either profit incentives are good for markets and the price information they yield ... or they are not.</strong> Is it possible that someone could say:

And they create straightforward profit incentives that encourage participants to search for better information,

and

suggests the creation of a safe harbor for small-stakes, not-for-profit prediction markets

in the same op-ed?

Make up your mind –either profit incentives are good for markets and the price information they yield … or they are not.

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