According to James Surowiecki in THE WISDOM OF CROWDS, the market-generated predictions have been shown to be more reliable than the output of any think tank.
Chris F. Masse May 11th, 2007
Let’s create a think tank whose output is generated, not by scholars (like Bob), but by sets of prediction markets, then. 
Previous: The Economist should set up The Open Institute of Prediction Markets. + WHY THE ECONOMIST SHOULD ADD MARKET-GENERATED PROBABILITIES NEXT TO ITS CONTENT.
- Wisdom of Crowds & Collective Intelligence
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