Comments on: Black Swan & Predicting World War I http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/04/23/black-swan-predicting-world-war-i/ Prediction Markets, etc. Thu, 02 Feb 2012 23:13:18 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Mike Linksvayer » Fooled by common interest http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/04/23/black-swan-predicting-world-war-i/#comment-19123 Mike Linksvayer » Fooled by common interest Sat, 07 Jun 2008 05:51:59 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/04/23/black-swan-predicting-world-war-i/#comment-19123 [...] a prediction market will fail to signal — the knowledge does not exist to be aggregated. Chris Masse quoting Nassim Taleb: If, as Niall Ferguson showed, war bonds did not forecast the great war, it was a Black [...] [...] a prediction market will fail to signal — the knowledge does not exist to be aggregated. Chris Masse quoting Nassim Taleb: If, as Niall Ferguson showed, war bonds did not forecast the great war, it was a Black [...]

]]> By: Jason Ruspini http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/04/23/black-swan-predicting-world-war-i/#comment-15436 Jason Ruspini Mon, 23 Apr 2007 22:51:14 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/04/23/black-swan-predicting-world-war-i/#comment-15436 Recently I have been trying to do something similar, seeing how various market prices reacted to American civil war battles. Without access to the paper it is difficult to comment further. Recently I have been trying to do something similar, seeing how various market prices reacted to American civil war battles.

Without access to the paper it is difficult to comment further.

]]>