The discreet Keith Anderson writes to me about a good paper he has read.
Predicting World Cup results: Do goals seem more likely when they pay off? – by Maya Bar-Hillel
Center for the Study of Rationality, The Hebrew University at JerusalemA paper by Maya Bar-Hillel of The Hebrew University at Jerusalem reviews suggested instances of wishful thinking and desirability biases in the context of probability estimates of the outcome of World Cup matches. Participants estimated the probabilities of various teams to win upcoming games and were promised money if one particular team, randomly designated by the experimenter, would win its upcoming game.
Participants judged their target team more likely to win than participants whose promised monetary reward was contingent on the victory of the rival team. This was interpreted as desirability bias.
However, in a follow-up study with no promised monetary rewards, one team was designated as being of “special interest.” Again, participants judged their target team more likely to win than other participants, whose “team of special interest” was the rival team.
The paper’s conclusion is that what truly exists is a “salience” or “marketing” effect.
Paper: PDF file
