Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

WHY THE ECONOMIST SHOULD ADD MARKET-GENERATED PROBABILITIES NEXT TO ITS CONTENT.

Written by Chris F. Masse on April 20, 2007 — 2 Comments
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The Economist on the next French presidential election:

No French presidential election in 50 years has looked as unpredictable as this year’s, the first round of which takes place on April 22nd. [...]

Reality check from the “free markets”, so revered by The Economist:

Nicolas Sarkozy as the next French President: 66% at BetFair

Nicolas Sarkozy as the next French President: 65% at InTrade-TradeSports

TAKEAWAY: The “opinion” or “sentiment” of the journalos is complete bullshit. Give us the market-generated probabilities.

External Link: Turning The Economist into an economy = The Red Stripe Project investigating the prediction markets.

UPDATE: MIDAS ORACLE PROCLAIMS REPUBLICAN NICOLAS SARKOZY AS THE FRENCH PRESIDENT-ELECT.

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Entrepreneurship | Tagged , ,

2 Comments to “WHY THE ECONOMIST SHOULD ADD MARKET-GENERATED PROBABILITIES NEXT TO ITS CONTENT.”

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  1. Keith Jacks Gamble's Gravatar Keith Jacks GambleNo Gravatar
    April 20, 2007 at 10:15 AM | Permalink

    Amen

  2. Chris. F. Masse's Gravatar Chris. F. MasseNo Gravatar
    April 20, 2007 at 10:56 AM | Permalink

    We need to break free from the current, co-opted commentariat: bring in the prediction markets!

    MIDAS ORACLE PROCLAIMS REPUBLICAN NICOLAS SARKOZY AS THE FRENCH PRESIDENT-ELECT.
    http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/04/22/midas-oracle-proclaims-republican-nicolas-sarkozy-as-the-french-president-elect/

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