Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

EXCHANGE OF THE DAY: US Futures Exchanges (USFE)

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Chicago Business:

[...] Satish Nandapurkar, chief executive of USFE, which has offices two blocks south of the Merc, says regulators will monitor holdings of more than 25 contracts, making it difficult for investors to amass a position that would sway the market. In addition, insiders such as exchange employees and directors are banned from trading. [*] USFE plans more such event-based contracts, based on everything from economic indicators to corporate events to currencies and energy [**], and expects interest to be particularly high among individual traders, he says. Building interest in such contracts is a priority. The exchange is offering a $3,300 Omega Planet Ocean watch to the person who correctly guesses Friday’s closing contract prices. Views on the merger are “all over the place,” says Mr. Nandapurkar. “Marketplaces do a very good job, because real money changes hands, of showing where sentiment lies,” he says, noting that trading in the contracts may take a while to pick up. “The thing to be careful about is, if there is very low volume, don’t read too much into the sentiment.

[*] Bad. Let insiders trade in.

[**] Great.

US Futures Exchange – (USFE) – (U.S.A.) – USFE is a designated contract maker (DCM). — USFE uses The Clearing Corporation to provide its clearing services.

A big hello to… Michael Sankowski :) – Product Development – US Futures Exchange – Illinois, U.S.A. :)

Previous: USFE aims at InTrade. – Financial Times Edition + USFE’s letter to the US CFTC – Binary Event Derivatives

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