Comments on: CAVEAT BETTOR, YOU NEED A GLOBAL MODEL TO BE ABLE TO PREDICT FUTURE TEMPERATURES. http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/04/18/caveat-bettor-you-need-a-global-model-to-be-able-to-predict-future-temperatures/ Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off Sun, 21 Mar 2010 17:48:51 -0400 hourly 1 By: Intrade lists Global Warming Contracts! | Midas Oracle .ORG http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/04/18/caveat-bettor-you-need-a-global-model-to-be-able-to-predict-future-temperatures/#comment-17448 Intrade lists Global Warming Contracts! | Midas Oracle .ORG Sat, 15 Mar 2008 01:12:03 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/04/18/caveat-bettor-you-need-a-global-model-to-be-able-to-predict-future-temperatures/#comment-17448 [...] end of 2006/beginning of 2007 (the post was on Jan 10 2007, but I think I requested them first). A conversation at Midas Oracle, a few months [...] [...] end of 2006/beginning of 2007 (the post was on Jan 10 2007, but I think I requested them first). A conversation at Midas Oracle, a few months [...]

]]> By: Chris. F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/04/18/caveat-bettor-you-need-a-global-model-to-be-able-to-predict-future-temperatures/#comment-15398 Chris. F. Masse Thu, 19 Apr 2007 21:56:33 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/04/18/caveat-bettor-you-need-a-global-model-to-be-able-to-predict-future-temperatures/#comment-15398 OK. Thanks. :) Psstt... Cav, take a look at my ProTrade story. It is receiving thousands of hits today, because Andrew Sullivan is linking to it. http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/04/17/protrade-the-jock-exchange-the-first-public-stock-market-that-trades-in-professional-athletes/ See whether you can make a smart comment over there... :) OK. Thanks. :)

Psstt… Cav, take a look at my ProTrade story. It is receiving thousands of hits today, because Andrew Sullivan is linking to it.

http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/04/17/protrade-the-jock-exchange-the-first-public-stock-market-that-trades-in-professional-athletes/

See whether you can make a smart comment over there… :)

]]> By: Caveat Bettor http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/04/18/caveat-bettor-you-need-a-global-model-to-be-able-to-predict-future-temperatures/#comment-15397 Caveat Bettor Thu, 19 Apr 2007 21:26:39 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/04/18/caveat-bettor-you-need-a-global-model-to-be-able-to-predict-future-temperatures/#comment-15397 Chris, I believe in doubt, too. But sometimes, one must doubt one's doubts. All things socratic and scientific require rejection to move forward. Yet neither are fallible, dial back to any decade or previous century, and look at the assumptions say, under the discipline of physics. Only in the last few days has the New England Journal of Medicine come out with post-motem analysis on what was SCIENTIFIC hormone replacement treatments ... and the increase in the incidence of breast cancer. So, don't reject as a knee-jerk instinct. And learn to doubt your doubts. Acceptance is the other half of the mystery we call Truth. Chris, I believe in doubt, too. But sometimes, one must doubt one’s doubts.

All things socratic and scientific require rejection to move forward. Yet neither are fallible, dial back to any decade or previous century, and look at the assumptions say, under the discipline of physics. Only in the last few days has the New England Journal of Medicine come out with post-motem analysis on what was SCIENTIFIC hormone replacement treatments … and the increase in the incidence of breast cancer.

So, don’t reject as a knee-jerk instinct. And learn to doubt your doubts. Acceptance is the other half of the mystery we call Truth.

]]> By: Chris. F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/04/18/caveat-bettor-you-need-a-global-model-to-be-able-to-predict-future-temperatures/#comment-15390 Chris. F. Masse Thu, 19 Apr 2007 10:14:23 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/04/18/caveat-bettor-you-need-a-global-model-to-be-able-to-predict-future-temperatures/#comment-15390 Got your point. I have tried to find objections to your point... because I've very prudent when I trade. I believe in... doubt. Got your point.

I have tried to find objections to your point… because I’ve very prudent when I trade. I believe in… doubt.

]]> By: Caveat Bettor http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/04/18/caveat-bettor-you-need-a-global-model-to-be-able-to-predict-future-temperatures/#comment-15389 Caveat Bettor Wed, 18 Apr 2007 21:58:35 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/04/18/caveat-bettor-you-need-a-global-model-to-be-able-to-predict-future-temperatures/#comment-15389 Uhh, Chris, people buy stuff all the time that is not good for them. Look at lottery tickets--you put down a dollar to win 30 - 35 cents. First, the lottery masters keep a third of the collection for overhead and public financing. Then they payout the other two-thirds. Then they tax the two-thirds. And remember, that dollar was after-tax money. People will buy this. If priced aggressively enough, I will sell it. Our risk models are not perfect, either. Ever hear about LTCM or Amaranth? So don't hide behind that shrubbery. When things get difficult, that's when prediction markets can inject some information. Sure, it won't be perfect information. But, you and I agree, markets outperform polls when it comes to revealing the truth. http://caveatbettor.blogspot.com/2007/04/chris-masse-is-losing-his-nerve-when-it.html Uhh, Chris, people buy stuff all the time that is not good for them.

Look at lottery tickets–you put down a dollar to win 30 – 35 cents. First, the lottery masters keep a third of the collection for overhead and public financing. Then they payout the other two-thirds. Then they tax the two-thirds. And remember, that dollar was after-tax money.

People will buy this. If priced aggressively enough, I will sell it.

Our risk models are not perfect, either. Ever hear about LTCM or Amaranth? So don’t hide behind that shrubbery.

When things get difficult, that’s when prediction markets can inject some information. Sure, it won’t be perfect information. But, you and I agree, markets outperform polls when it comes to revealing the truth.

http://caveatbettor.blogspot.com/2007/04/chris-masse-is-losing-his-nerve-when-it.html

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