Hurricane contracts? Yes! But where are the global warming contracts?
Caveat Bettor April 15th, 2007
Since April 10 on Intrade. The Category-3-or-higher by State contracts look interesting. There are Last Named contracts, too, although I’d better read up on hurricane naming conventions before trying to price those. They are listed under the Weather - Seasonal - Hurricane section.
Still, alas, no global warming contracts.
I’ve suggested these in the past to Intrade, and at my blog, and here at Midas Oracle, but nothing yet. I stand by my guess that interest and liquidity in GISS-based contracts will outperform anything else on Intrade prior to the next elections.
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What would be the advanced indicators used by the TradeSports-InTrade human market makers to take early positions??
Chris, I would look for both fundamental drivers (e.g. solar theory, carbon emission projections) as well as technical patterns on the historical data.
Hmmm… Facts should be interpreted. You need a global model. I don’t think physicists have all the facts and I don’t think that their global model is that perfect.
I rate your global warning prediction markets as a bad idea. No advanced indicators, in my view.
Thank you for trying, but you didn’t convince me, pal.
Chris, should I infer from your comments that only contracts with clear bayesian priors should be traded, and an absence of obvious priors should prevent contract listings?
No, I say nothing about what “should” be traded. If many illiquid prediction markets are put up by TradeSports-InTrade, I don’t mind and I respect you as a contract creator.
I’m just saying that you, guys, contract suggesters, should mind the bet so that very active traders can find out there advanced indicators that will help them take over the uninformed traders, and thus create liquidity.
I do like your idea, I’m just trying to ask the tough question.