Comments on: Hurricane contracts? Yes! But where are the global warming contracts? http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/04/15/hurricane-contracts-yes/ Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off Sat, 20 Mar 2010 08:05:32 -0400 hourly 1 By: Chris. F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/04/15/hurricane-contracts-yes/#comment-15385 Chris. F. Masse Tue, 17 Apr 2007 17:25:59 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/04/15/hurricane-contracts-yes/#comment-15385 No, I say nothing about what "should" be traded. If many illiquid prediction markets are put up by TradeSports-InTrade, I don't mind and I respect you as a contract creator. I'm just saying that you, guys, contract suggesters, should mind the bet so that very active traders can find out there advanced indicators that will help them take over the uninformed traders, and thus create liquidity. I do like your idea, I'm just trying to ask the tough question. No, I say nothing about what “should” be traded. If many illiquid prediction markets are put up by TradeSports-InTrade, I don’t mind and I respect you as a contract creator.

I’m just saying that you, guys, contract suggesters, should mind the bet so that very active traders can find out there advanced indicators that will help them take over the uninformed traders, and thus create liquidity.

I do like your idea, I’m just trying to ask the tough question.

]]> By: Caveat Bettor http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/04/15/hurricane-contracts-yes/#comment-15384 Caveat Bettor Tue, 17 Apr 2007 17:07:06 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/04/15/hurricane-contracts-yes/#comment-15384 Chris, should I infer from your comments that only contracts with clear bayesian priors should be traded, and an absence of obvious priors should prevent contract listings? Chris, should I infer from your comments that only contracts with clear bayesian priors should be traded, and an absence of obvious priors should prevent contract listings?

]]> By: Chris. F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/04/15/hurricane-contracts-yes/#comment-15378 Chris. F. Masse Mon, 16 Apr 2007 20:20:09 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/04/15/hurricane-contracts-yes/#comment-15378 Hmmm... Facts should be interpreted. You need a global model. I don't think physicists have all the facts and I don't think that their global model is that perfect. I rate your global warning prediction markets as a bad idea. No advanced indicators, in my view. Thank you for trying, but you didn't convince me, pal. :) Hmmm… Facts should be interpreted. You need a global model. I don’t think physicists have all the facts and I don’t think that their global model is that perfect.

I rate your global warning prediction markets as a bad idea. No advanced indicators, in my view.

Thank you for trying, but you didn’t convince me, pal. :)

]]> By: Caveat Bettor http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/04/15/hurricane-contracts-yes/#comment-15377 Caveat Bettor Mon, 16 Apr 2007 20:11:51 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/04/15/hurricane-contracts-yes/#comment-15377 Chris, I would look for both fundamental drivers (e.g. solar theory, carbon emission projections) as well as technical patterns on the historical data. Chris, I would look for both fundamental drivers (e.g. solar theory, carbon emission projections) as well as technical patterns on the historical data.

]]> By: Chris. F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/04/15/hurricane-contracts-yes/#comment-15371 Chris. F. Masse Mon, 16 Apr 2007 07:33:45 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/04/15/hurricane-contracts-yes/#comment-15371 What would be the advanced indicators used by the TradeSports-InTrade human market makers to take early positions?? What would be the advanced indicators used by the TradeSports-InTrade human market makers to take early positions??

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