Comments on: 2006 North Korea Missile prediction market: a scandal signed TradeSports-InTrade http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/04/11/2006-north-korea-missile-prediction-market-a-scandal-signed-tradesports-intrade/ Prediction Markets For All Fri, 21 Nov 2008 00:00:41 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.3 By: Chris. F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/04/11/2006-north-korea-missile-prediction-market-a-scandal-signed-tradesports-intrade/#comment-15340 Chris. F. Masse Wed, 11 Apr 2007 13:22:33 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/04/11/2006-north-korea-missile-prediction-market-a-scandal-signed-tradesports-intrade/#comment-15340 Your statement is reasonable. However, please consider something. When you, scholars, publish on the accuracy of the TradeSports-Intrade prediction markets, by the same token, you give your stamp of approval to this Irish prediction exchange (betting exchange) and your writings will indirectly (thru media quotes) inform the public ---and thus publicize this Irish exchange. My point is that, yes, it's good to celebrate the accuracy of prediction markets from TradeSports-Intrade, but it's also important to tell people that TradeSports-InTrade, as an organization, is less reliable than BetFair. This critical remark is due to the public, as a matter of truth. Truth requires us to look at things thru different angles. Once people are better informed, there is more pressure to the exchange executives, and over time, service quality will improve. TradeSports-Intrade has better serviced the US-centric event derivative speculators. It's true. But there are some problems with this Irish prediction exchange, which should be listed and addressed. Your statement is reasonable.

However, please consider something. When you, scholars, publish on the accuracy of the TradeSports-Intrade prediction markets, by the same token, you give your stamp of approval to this Irish prediction exchange (betting exchange) and your writings will indirectly (thru media quotes) inform the public —and thus publicize this Irish exchange. My point is that, yes, it’s good to celebrate the accuracy of prediction markets from TradeSports-Intrade, but it’s also important to tell people that TradeSports-InTrade, as an organization, is less reliable than BetFair. This critical remark is due to the public, as a matter of truth. Truth requires us to look at things thru different angles.

Once people are better informed, there is more pressure to the exchange executives, and over time, service quality will improve.

TradeSports-Intrade has better serviced the US-centric event derivative speculators. It’s true. But there are some problems with this Irish prediction exchange, which should be listed and addressed.

]]> By: Robin Hanson http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/04/11/2006-north-korea-missile-prediction-market-a-scandal-signed-tradesports-intrade/#comment-15339 Robin Hanson Wed, 11 Apr 2007 12:58:24 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/2007/04/11/2006-north-korea-missile-prediction-market-a-scandal-signed-tradesports-intrade/#comment-15339 <i>None of the prediction market scholars published a statement on the North Korea Missile controversy. The scholars are dependent on the three main prediction exchanges</i> "Scholars" do not make statements on subjects that they have not carefully considered, especially when others out there have considered those subjects more carefully. I have no special expertize in figuring out whether exchange X made a fair decision in settling bet Y. Others put a lot more time into evaluating those claims, and so I will defer to them. None of the prediction market scholars published a statement on the North Korea Missile controversy. The scholars are dependent on the three main prediction exchanges

“Scholars” do not make statements on subjects that they have not carefully considered, especially when others out there have considered those subjects more carefully. I have no special expertize in figuring out whether exchange X made a fair decision in settling bet Y. Others put a lot more time into evaluating those claims, and so I will defer to them.

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