Robin Hanson (PDF file):
[...] I created the first internal corporate idea futures at Xanadu in 1989, and in 1994 my design and inspiration led to one of the first web markets, then called Idea Futures, for which I received the Prix Ars Electronica Golden Nica, a prestigious electronic art prize. Now called the Foresight Exchange, it is still the only web market where users can add claims to trade. My papers inspired the NewsFutures market, and the Hollywood Stock Exchange uses my proposed market makers. [...]
Yes, Doc, but for that they should “join” the Foresight Exchange and interact with the rest of the Web-based organization. And an independent judge (independent from the owner of the claim) should be appointed among the volunteers. So, it’s “user-created and user-managed”, but not “DYI” (“do it yourself”). The Foresight Exchange is more the story about a play-money prediction exchange managed by an open group of volunteers (which is great).
I still view Inkling Markets as the pioneer of DIY, play-money prediction markets (which is great, too).
Inkling Markets was launched in March 2006 and pioneered DIY, play-money prediction markets in May 2006.
Flutter (later absorbed by BetFair) pioneered the concept of user-created, real-money prediction markets in May 2000 —it seems.
I say “it seems” for Flutter because I haven’t been able to check the facts directly. So I can’t say whether the “DIY” label can really apply to Flutter.
As for Inkling, we know now, from Inkling co-founder Nate Kontny, that the idea of DIY prediction markets came from Adam Siegel.
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