Case#1. If things stay as they are today, the next French president is Republican Nicolas SARKOZY.
Case #2. If Centrist Francois BAYROU manages to gain one or two points in the polls, so as to be above the Socialist Segolene ROYAL and maintain a second position till Election Day, then he will pass the first round and compete against Republican SARKOZY. Polls show BAYROU beats SARKOZY in the second round.
ABOUT BAYROU: Centrist saying he will govern with both Republicans and Socialists. [!!] Says public deficits are problem #1. Attacks the politico-mediatic establishment (including the alleged relationship between SARKOZY and the French equivalent of NBC, TF1). Thus, viewed as “courageous” by the French (who are prone to believe in any conspiracy theory). Tries to elevate his vision above the political parties —or so he says.
Previous: Who will be the next French President? Nicolas Sarkozy or Francois Bayrou?
BetFair – BAYROU = 20% — Providing that BAYROU does not disappoint on D Day, any bold speculator buying cheap now can multiply by five his/her stake.
Addendum: NewsFutures chart does show up, now. 
UPDATE: MIDAS ORACLE PROCLAIMS REPUBLICAN NICOLAS SARKOZY AS THE FRENCH PRESIDENT-ELECT.
Dommage.
Sarkozy seems to “get it” in a way that other French politicians simply do not. And he has been as unshy as politically possible about saying it.
I have no illusions about Sarko being a French Thatcher, but I think he will give France a much needed dose of free markets.
Bayrou seems singularly and utterly bereft of ideas, from the little I have read. His election would be an expression of timid disapproval of the French ruling elite, without any change in direction.
I agree with you on Sarkozy. I don’t rule out voting for him.
As for Bayrou, he is a mix bag. He points to the public deficits, which is great. He wants more control power for the French Congress, which I favor. I’m not very well informed about his other proposals. His candidacy is more about his persona than his program.
I’ve just seen that there will be a tiny libertarian candidate. I don’t know whether this guy will be on the ballot. (You need 500 signatures from elected officials, mayors, etc.)
http://www.alternative-liberale.fr/